Munster are coming to Dublin for a brawl. Not the '99 call' of olden times but a similar methodology to the Springboks when they face the All Blacks.
All the South Africans floating about the University of Limerick will know what I mean. To have any chance of stopping New Zealand, the opposition must disrupt their flow. At least once in a game they will open you up, leave you sucking oxygen under your posts. Keep it to two or three line breaks and a team could still face a 15, 20 point deficit.
Think how Ireland struggled on the gainline in the World Cup quarter-final. Now, remember how England’s defence pulverised them a week later.
A brilliant attacking team must be suffocated at source. Two weeks ago Munster contested every lineout, every breakdown and every high ball to keep a foothold in the match. No scenario setting at training can prepare Leinster for these levels of intensity. If they did manage to replicate this they would have no bodies left for the weekend.
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Munster must stop Leinster from playing the game at pace. It starts with a high defensive line – and all the risk that entails – and then it comes down to the messiest place on earth; the breakdown.
Munster will have taken very little from the 49 points they put on Connacht. The early red cards ruined any chance of a valuable lesson but the fact they got themselves embroiled in an arm-wrestle for 60 minutes shows how far they still have to go. That was a second-string Connacht side.
Same goes for Ulster. They can moan about John Cooney's disallowed try but a re-examination of the entire match tells us the 'Leinster Possibles' were a superior outfit.
Edinburgh, under Richard Cockerill, will demand an aggressiveness, in the mould of his old Leicester Tigers when they ruled the Northern Hemisphere. Cockerill will have the Scots spitting fire at Murrayfield, so Ulster must figure out how to rediscover their groove after the lost months of 2020. With doubts around Jordi Murphy, Jacob Stockdale and Stuart McCloskey, all of Dan McFarland's psychological expertise is required.
Otherwise, Ulster will stumble all the way down to Toulouse. No mercy will be shown in the south of France. This Saturday is a straight lesson in how to cope with adversity. The trip to Edinburgh alone might worry a few players.
If the contest comes down to Munster at their best against Leinster at their best, another semi-final defeat will go into the books
Back to Friday night lights at the Aviva, if Munster versus Leinster in a semi-final cannot bring the rugby heads out of hibernation then nothing will. The clash of styles should captivate any sports fan.
Lancaster’s Leinster are the slickest provincial machine we have ever seen. They are yet to match the heights our team achieved, by retaining the European Cup in 2012, but every element of their play is tuned to precision via individual excellence.
Silver service
Johann van Graan’s Munster have stopped complaining about Covid disrupted training, five-day turnarounds and very expensive injuries. Yes, these are handicaps that have slowed progress in recent weeks. And yes, they have lost two genuine stars in Joey Carbery and RG Snyman, but the rivalry cannot shoulder any more excuses.
I presume that officials will continue to struggle at the breakdown. Munster might have an advantage here. Tadhg Beirne was superb on his return from injury. Along with Chris Cloete and Peter O'Mahony, Beirne must force additional Leinster bodies into rucks to secure possession.
Last Sunday Cloete played Frank Murphy like any openside should after a referee shows five cards – two red, three yellows – by getting up to every borderline illegal trick over the ball.
In December 2018 Munster dragged Leinster into the sort of legal brawl I am looking forward to seeing. Game plans and strategy appeared to go out the window as both teams went toe to toe. Job one for Munster is to make the breakdown look like the Royal Rumble at WrestleMania. Create havoc for Luke McGrath. Dirty up his silver service.
If Johnny Sexton is constantly in Andrew Brace's ear about the "chaos" he witnessed in the first instalment of Leinster versus Munster 11 days ago, while O'Mahony is buried under a pile of blue jerseys then we have ourselves a game.
Munster have put a solid system in place. JJ Hanrahan sounds like he knows how to control games, with the increasingly impressive Shane Daly trailing and sniffing for an opportunity. But they need to be abrasive before anything else can happen, just like all the teams Van Graan has coached, from the Blue Bulls to the ’Boks and now Munster.
It has to be chaotic because if the contest comes down to Munster at their best against Leinster at their best, another semi-final defeat will go into the books.
They must create an environment that makes Leinster extremely uncomfortable. Draw up the blueprint for Saracens to ruin Leinster’s flawless season. What Sarries did at St James Park in May 2019 is a good place to start.
The defeats would drive us mad but we only started to do something practical about it in November 2007
If given opportunities, I am certain the Munster backline will deliver. Keith Earls has had a razor-sharp start to the campaign and Andrew Conway cannot stop scoring, but mostly it is Hanrahan's calm demeanour and slick passing by Conor Murray that has launched their main weapons, Chris Farrell and Damian de Allende.
None of this matters if the pack fail to dominate without their African oak trees, Snyman and Jean Kleyn. The loss of these giant locks means they may not be able to physically bully Leinster, regardless of the players they select, but especially if Dan Leavy and James Ryan return, so their strategy must focus on ruining Leinster possession.
Miserable experience
If Scott Fardy and Josh van der Flier are forced to resource rucks, rather than their recent impressions of peak-Kieran Read running in the wide channels, then we have ourselves a game.
Force Leinster to reconfigure tactics in the middle of the game. No captain wants to rip up the script.
Considering the Munster front five have also lost Dave Kilcoyne, their only genuine contender to start for Ireland, all the emphasis switches on to players considered below international standards to ram these words down my throat.
On the other hand, if Stephen Archer and Jeremy Loughman are exposed for switching off around the ruck, like Ringrose did to them the last day, it will be business as usual. If they have done their homework, they’ll be working hard early to be waiting in position to punish the centre for attempting to skip over their fox hole.
I can relate to the mindset of the modern Munster player. Early in my career getting selected at fullback for Leinster consumed me so much that I wasn’t ready to face a Munster maul-obsessed pack, led by Axel and friends, that encouraged Ronan O’Gara to show everyone just how unprepared I was to play in the position at that level.
Back onto the wing I went after chasing shadows. Losing to them was a miserable experience that went on far too long. The nadir of our rivalry with Munster, you may recall, happened at Lansdowne Road in the 2006 European semi-final.
Everyone noticed our worm-turning victory at Croke Park three years later but we always felt we had the better players. The defeats would drive us mad but we only started to do something practical about it in November 2007.
It was a nothing match at Musgrave Park when Leinster finally out-Munstered Munster. We were well beaten by them twice more before the Croker game but that 10-3 win in Cork was a vital step on the ladder. Our forwards had waited a very long time for that feeling. The surge of confidence completely changed our mentality when Munster won 18-0 at the RDS the very next season. We knew, this time with certainty, that the better team had blown it. No more head -scratching or pointing the finger at each other. “Next time,” was the mantra after being nilled on our own grass.
If Munster are approaching the same moment in their evolution under Van Graan and Stephen Larkham then we most certainly have ourselves a game on Friday night. If not, the battle will go the way of Sexton’s boot and any number of routes Leinster can take to the try line.
Jordan Larmour will probably make the match day 23 when the Six Nations resumes but 15 is no longer guaranteed
It’s also worth noting that Munster’s season lives or dies upon the result.
The team announcement alone – will Leo Cullen reward the form of Will Connors or Ciarán Frawley or go back to established internationals? What’s the story with Ryan and Leavy? – ensures the excitement can start to build from Thursday lunchtime.
I still expect Leinster to cope with whatever Munster throw at them. The evidence overwhelmingly points to blue over red.
Stockdale ticks all boxes
Watching Bundee Aki attempt to destroy Damian de Allende – immovable object meets unstoppable force – at the Aviva Stadium on Sunday made me thankful Bundee never went after me like that. He decided that Ben Te’o was a better scalp. I had the best seat in the house for that particular man-o-mano.
You don’t want to cross Bundee in this mood. You definitely want him playing for Ireland in this mood.
The night before, watching Jacob Stockdale, it felt like the mantle of Ireland’s fullback – so stubbornly held by Rob Kearney since 2009 – was being passed.
I’d love to hear Andy Farrell’s conversation with Mike Catt over the type of back field they intend to select. Stockdale possesses all the qualities a fullback needs, most of the skills Kearney perfected over his 15-year career, but Jacob also brings a sprinter’s pace and intimidating size that appears – to my mind – to offer Ireland another world-class operator in a key position.
Jordan Larmour will probably make the match day 23 when the Six Nations resumes but 15 is no longer guaranteed. Nor is either wing due to Keith Earls – the outstanding back field player since the restart – while Andrew Conway also looks an irresistible choice. That puts the emphasis on Larmour and James Lowe to raise the stakes.
Selection depends on form, naturally, but also on the attacking shape Catt wants Ireland to produce. If he adopts a system similar to Stuart Lancaster’s Leinster – and they have hinted as much before lockdown – then there is a readymade backline that includes Robbie Henshaw alongside Garry Ringrose.
Chris Farrell must be in the conversation but nobody in their right mind is looking past the physicality of Aki – he even did a job at number eight when Abraham Papali’i was sent off for playing Rugby League – alongside Ringrose or, for that matter, the new dimension Stockdale offers at fullback.
I just hope injury stops deciding the make-up of Ireland’s backline.
