HERE WE go again. The oldest and most successful rugby tournament in the world returns this Saturday, retaining its status as the gravy train which keeps the European game chugging along, although akin to its declining appeal as a rugby event, so too its waning appeal as the social event.
Take this weekend’s opening round and one of those anti-social Sunday afternoon kick-offs between Ireland and Wales at the Aviva Stadium. Then take the second weekend, when Ireland have the Saturday night shift at 9pm local time in the often soulless Stade de France, over two hours after the conclusion of the Italy-England game in Rome, while Wales and Scotland are afforded the library shift the next day.
He who pays the piper and all that.
That said, perhaps helpfully, there’ll be a fair whiff of you-know-what in the air this weekend, with Scotland’s agonising defeat in the pool decider against England and Ireland’s quarter-final defeat to Wales focusing home minds. Likewise, France will have the memory of their defeat in Rome last season to concentrate their wavering emotions.
As ever at the start of a new World Cup cycle, fresh brooms abound, and it’s worth recalling the post-RWC tournament of 2008 when, in Warren Gatland’s first campaign, Wales won the Grand Slam, while Ireland finished outside the top three for the first time since 1999, thereby ensuring the end of Eddie O’Sullivan’s seven-year reign.
The Welsh defensive coach Shaun Edwards recently argued that winning a Grand Slam was tougher than reaching a World Cup final, and judging by France’s rollercoaster in New Zealand – reaching the final on the back of barely 30 minutes’ good rugby in the quarter-finals against England – he has a point.
One would imagine France will receive the most significant boost from a regime change, now that they have a relatively proven head coach in Philippe Saint-André. He might well just pick the best, in-form players available too, and novel concepts such as outhalves playing at, well, outhalf.
But whereas the other five coaches have had their squads in situ for two weeks, Saint-André had to watch his players go through a full round of domestic Top 14 matches last weekend. History, though, shows that this year’s itinerary, with Ireland and England visiting Paris, yielded championship successes in 2002, ’04, ’06 and ’10, with Slams in all but ’06.
Not so Ireland. Prior to 1972, Ireland hadn’t beaten France and England away since the Grand Slam winning year of 1948, and have not done so since. Primarily this is because of the record in Paris, where the Brian O’Driscoll-inspired win remains the only victory in 20 visits dating back to ’72 (and that was the first win in Paris since 1952).
Nor, for the first time since 1999, is there any O’Driscoll, with whom Ireland have had a 73 per cent winning ratio in the Six Nations, but without him that drops to 20 per cent, courtesy of wins over Italy and Scotland, but defeats to France (twice) and England. Throw in World Cup matches against front-line opposition and friendlies against the Four Nations, and the 57 per cent winning ratio with him in the team drops to less than 20 per cent without him. There are also expanded attacking roles for Les Kiss, Mark Tainton and Mervyn Murphy, but, otherwise, Ireland have the most settled set-up, and the vast core of the side which beat Australia in Eden Park en route to a four-from-four return in the pool stages.
Given the need for some momentum to take to Paris, next Sunday’s game is likely to define Ireland’s campaign, but, by contrast, Wales could be missing up to eight of the side which beat Ireland in Wellington.
Also, Gatland and co must again revive the Welsh feel-good factor in spite, rather than because of, their regions.
The Heineken Cup also suggests a new interim coach will take a callow team from a very shallow English pool under a new captain to Murrayfield and beyond before, most probably, being replaced after the Six Nations by Nick Mallett. The Scots always raise their game at home to the English in what is likely to be another dour arm wrestle.
It will be interesting to see if the bold move to the 72,000-capacity Stadio Olimpico bears fruit for the Italians. Ex-French assistant coach and Perpignan head coach Jacques Brunel has time on his side which is just as well, because Italy still don’t have an outhalf.
