Rugby World Cup – Pool C Preview: A dream victory over Australia would open an easier route to the final, but a showdown with the Azzurri is more likely, writes Gerry Thornley.
On the face of it, the rewards for winning this pool could be considerable. Presuming New Zealand and South Africa win their groups, then the first placed side in Pool C will avoid those two until the final, with Wales or Samoa in the quarter-finals perhaps followed by France or England in the semi-finals.
Viewed in that context, Ireland’s game against Australia is their biggest match in years save for the Grand Slam finale against Wales in 2009. Victory in Eden Park therefore on September 17th (9.30am Irish time) would give Ireland their best opportunity of reaching a first semi-final in seven World Cups. Alternatively, the Pool C runners-up will most likely face South Africa in the quarters, followed by New Zealand in the semis.
However, with the highly regarded Robbie Deans at the helm, once again Australia (winners in 1991 and 1999, and finalists in 2003) appear to be peaking for the World Cup. The core of the team is founded around the Queensland Reds, whose historic Super 15 success imbues their squad with confidence and a richly inventive attacking game.
Deans dropped something of a bombshell when taking the captaincy away from Rocky Elsom and handing it to the Reds’ skipper, James Horwill, and this may have something to do with Elsom’s undecided future and whether he will return to Europe. In any event, they have an exceptional array of quality in their backrow in the likes of Scott Higginbotham, Wycliff Palu and David Pocock, along with the Reds duo of Will Genia and Quade Cooper pulling the strings at halfback, with strike runners and strike moves galore outside them.
Very few teams could do as the Wallabies recently did, namely go to Durban and grittily beat an admittedly rusty Springboks 14-9. Historically, Ireland do better against the Wallabies than anyone else and, of their three World Cup defeats to them, two were desperately close run affairs. Ireland will need to be at their best, à la the English finale last March in Croke Park.
Despite their slow-burning form in the warm-up matches, one wouldn’t put it past a vintage collection of players – many of them playing in their last World Cup – all the more so if it’s a rainy night in Auckland. You’d fancy the tactical kicking of Jonathan Sexton and/or Ronan O’Gara against Cooper and co in such circumstances, and also in a place-kicking duel.
Issues remain about the Irish scrum, and the Wallabies’ scrum is much improved from the one of four years ago which cost them a quarter-final against England. But provided Mike Ross and Cian Healy are fit, that shouldn’t be a problem.
Scrumhalf became more of an issue on the eve of the World Cup, with Tomás O’Leary clearly having been earmarked for countering Genia and that backrow only to apparently play himself out of the squad.
Furthermore, no Irish team has beaten a Tri-Nations team in the southern hemisphere since the Ollie Campbell-inspired side of 1979 won both tests in Australia. Weeks out from the tournament, the bookies were already making Ireland 10-point underdogs for this game.
Sandwiching that pivotal game are outings against the USA Eagles, coached by Eddie O’Sullivan, and Russia, competing in their first ever World Cup.
Ireland will most likely want to hit the ground running against the USA with a strong selection, before delving more deeply into their squad for their third match against Russia in Rotorua.
Russia have progressed considerably in recent years, Kingsley Jones having come in as coach after Steve Diamond took the Sale job, along with overseas strength and conditioning staff. Russia and the USA both performed reasonably well in the Churchill Cup, where each side was missing about five of their front-liners as the Eagles beat the Russians 32-25 in the Bowl Final at Sixways; the former Blackrock College flyer Vasily Artemyev scored one of Russia’s tries.
Russia prepared for the tournament with a reputedly gruelling three-week training camp in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, and had a low-key preparation with games against English club sides, beginning with an opening 54-19 defeat to Northampton when they appeared to be well short of full-strength.
They are targeting their debut match against the USA (well, they would, wouldn’t they?), and judging by the Churchill Cup, the Russians will tackle you all day if you run straight lines at them, but drag them through a few phases and they begin to struggle. The Wallabies particularly, if in the mood, could well run up a very big score against them.
Prior to that, the USA will have an emotive opener on the 10th anniversary of 9/11 against Ireland in New Plymouth. Four years ago, the sight of Biarritz wing Taku Ngwenya beating Bryan Habana on the outside for a try in their 64-15 defeat to the Springboks was one of the enduring highlights of the tournament and he is capable of hurting any defence.
But the Eagles lost all their three preparatory games, going down by 22-28 in Toronto and 27-7 a week later in Colorado to Canada, and then lost 20-14 to Japan in Tokyo. “I don’t think they have as strong a squad as they had in 2007 and I think Eddie has a few challenges there,” says Mark Egan, the IRB’s head of development and performance.
“But they will be competitive and they will be up for those games against Ireland and Russia. Ireland shouldn’t have too many problems, but they need to be careful.” Ultimately though, it will all come down to the Italian game in Dunedin’s new enclosed stadium on Sunday, October 2nd, on the final day of pool qualification.
Even if Ireland have beaten Australia, they may well need to win again against Nick Mallett’s team to copperfasten first place in the group. A more likely scenario is that both teams lose to Australia and beat the rugby minnows of Russia and America (which really does sound like a contradiction in terms) and thus, regardless of how bonus points pan out, make this match a shootout for a place in the quarter-finals – effectively a knock-out tie.
That would be a considerably more uncomfortable prospect if, again, anything had happened to the aforementioned Healy and Ross. After losing 13-11 to Ireland in Rome last February, the Azzurri will be targeting this match and much of their game draws its strength from old warriors such as Martin Castrogiovanni, Fabio Ongaro and Andrea Lo Cicero at scrum time, as well as the brilliant Sergio Parisse at number eight.
But Mallett, departing after the World Cup, has fired a broadside at Aironi and Treviso for favouring overseas imports, and judging by an unimpressive 31-24 come-from-behind win at home to Japan and a 23-12 defeat to Scotland, half-back remains a problem for them.
At least, for the first time ever, conditions are guaranteed to be dry in Dunedin, and Ireland ought to have more about them than the Italians. Drama tends to follow Ireland at World Cups, and one senses this one mightn’t be an exception, but the threshold of the quarter-finals is achievable. Perhaps not the one they might prefer though.
