SA first Test complacency may give Irish some hope

As Irish rugby challenges go, they couldn't come much bigger than this: the rejuvenated world champions, unquestionably one of…

As Irish rugby challenges go, they couldn't come much bigger than this: the rejuvenated world champions, unquestionably one of the top two sides in the world, on their own patch this afternoon in the Free State Stadium (Sky Sports 1, 4.0).

The bookmakers are apparently calling it a 33-point game and strictly speaking, it could be classed a mismatch. After all, pitted against these Springboks, seemingly a team of all the talents whose coach Nick Mallett elevated their game to new attacking levels on their all-conquering endof-year tour of Europe, are the Five Nations' wooden spoonists.

Ireland have never beaten South Africa on their own soil; the sole Irish win in ten previous encounters coming in Dublin on April 10th, 1965 by 9-6.

The most recent auguries are no more encouraging, for Ireland come into this first Test on the back of three successive tour defeats to provincial opposition. A little disconcertingly, none of the previous four tour games have been a great barometer for today.

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Now cue to the Boks. Ireland will be facing by far and away the most potent opposing back-row so far, with Andre Venter, Gary Teichmann and Johan Erasmus, who are liable to come at the Irish back-row and backs all day long. If the wunderkind Gaffie du Toit settles quickly off Joost van der Westhuizen's polished service, then there's weapons aplenty out wide for the Boks to hurt Ireland with. Put bluntly, they are a far more technically gifted side, capable of playing the game at a far higher tempo.

Thus, there is the real fear of a "shock factor" in the opening quarter especially. It could be a long day then, for if that were to materialise, how long would it take Ireland to recover, if at all?

A little disconcerting, too, is the number of tries, 14 conceded so far in four tour games - and that includes five by the nucleus of this Test team against Boland. Against that, Eric Elwood is back to stiffen things up at out-half, the Mark McCall-Kevin Maggs midfield axis is pretty effective at shoring things up and Justin Bishop is a brave tackler who knows the defensive system. Save for the absence of a big hitter at number six, compensated for by the collective speed of the back-row across the park, it's probably the strongest defensive side Warren Gatland could put out.

And under Gatland this Irish side has developed a few characteristics which have not exactly been commonplace in recent years: they are defensively well organised and prepared to tackle big, while they are also an 80 minute side.

Thus, the arrogant dismissiveness which the local media have displayed toward the tourists may be a bit misplaced and will do the home side few favours if Ireland make a game of it into the second-half and beyond.

One suspects Nick Mallett was not only trying to counter this but also applying some balance to the pre-match mood in Bloemfontein when countering expectations of a rout in the mould of Australia's 76-0 win over England a week ago.

Many of the Springboks have not played for the last three weeks while they've only had a week and a half of practice to compare against Ireland's more concentrated preparations.

There are a countless precedents which show that the first Test is usually a touring side's best chance (Ireland in Dunedin in '92, England in Pretoria in '94, the Lions here last summer). Hence, if there is a time to take on the Springboks on their own turf, this is probably it.

They're going to have to raise their level of performance to put the theory into practice. But the set-pieces, which have dropped from Five Nations' levels, ought to improve with the return of Wood, while the pack's rucking and mauling have been two of the tour's big plusses so far. Ball retention will be critical, if only to ensure a high tackle count doesn't leave Ireland there for the kill late on.

Save for Conor O'Shea twice breaking tackles to score off moves going left to right, there hasn't been too much evidence of the Irish backs adding armoury to the Elwood reverse flick. Gatland though, hinted that they have kept something up their sleeve for tomorrow.

He also revealed that training was edgy, and "the players were a bit bitchy with each other, which I don't know is a good or a bad thing." Most probably a good thing, all the more so as poor dress rehearsals make for better first nights.

Shades here, definitely, of Paris. This match is possibly even more daunting, though mentally, that seems to suit this Ireland team. A hunch therefore, says that Ireland will still be in this game with 15 or 20 minutes to go, and that the Boks may even get a bit of a shock.

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times