IT’S BEEN fun while it lasted but it’s goodbye to Croke Park and all that then, and the sense of history attached to today’s game makes the floodlit, tea-time kick-off all the more welcome. As with the 2010 RBS Six Nations itself, it’s been a dramatic rollercoaster of a ride, and the Ireland squad and crowd alike will feel an acute need to Crown it all off in style.
As consolation prizes go, a fifth Triple Crown in seven years would constitute the best means of saying “go raibh maith agaibh”.
Unlike St Patrick’s Day two years ago, it doesn’t matter that the French have the distinct advantage of kicking off last for Ireland have little or no hope of making up the required 50-point swing.
Come kick-off in Paris, les bleus will be priming les rosbifs for the oven, when only a Grand Chelem will do, and, either way, Irish fans are unlikely to root for England.
Come kick-off, by which stage the forecast rain should have lifted, the pressure will be on Ireland to perform, whereas there is little or no expectancy on the Scots, who can afford to swing from the hip.
But at face value this looks a tough one mentally and physically for the Scots. The England game at home is always emotionally charged for them (no less than the rest of us) and aside from the associated bangs and bruises, they have only had a six-day turnaround.
Their struggle to score tries continues too, their support play and finishing failing to convert the many line breaks and gallops of John Beattie in particular, and they have been tryless in five of their last six outings.
Even so, they are highly physical, well-organised and a singularly tough unit to crack. Their defence has only conceded six tries and their heaviest defeat in eight games under Andy Robinson so far was by nine points to France.
Ireland have targeted reducing the penalty count against them (30 in their last two outings) and increasing their ratio of possession. This mightn’t be easy for this Scottish team will boast better set-pieces and a far better backrow than Wales.
Statistically, Scotland have the best lineout in the competition, having won 46 of their 48 throws (Ireland have won 32 and lost three).
In what will be more of a bruiser than the Welsh game, Stephen Ferris and co have to draw the lines in the sand at collision time, while repeating the intensity and accuracy of their clearing out in the last two games. That’s been the abiding lesson from Paris, and with their in-form all-Glasgow backrow of Kelly Brown, John Barclay and Beattie – the so-called Killer Bs – Scotland are better arm wrestlers than the Welsh.
Dan Parks has also been concerting a much higher percentage of his kicks than Jonathan Sexton, though the latter’s misses were surely just blips.
As for the possession stakes, it would help if Ireland varied their restart game, as well as improving their work-rate off the ball to give themselves more options other than kicking. Putting five kicks out on the full isn’t too clever either.
Which brings us to the vexed question of the penalty counts. For all the brouhaha over the IRB’s edict regarding the tackler releasing the ball-carrier when he goes to ground before re-engaging, only three of last week’s tally were for this offence.
Granted, with Jonathan Kaplan the third South African in a row to referee Ireland, there’s been disconcerting evidence that Mark Lawrence and Craig Joubert (though crystal clear in their communication) were watching the team in green more closely than those in white or red, specifically John Hayes at scrum time and Hayes, Cian Healy, Donncha O’Callaghan and co at the hindmost foot.
One wonders too, if Ireland can continue to convert such a high percentage of set-pieces in opposition territory into scores through the strike running of Tomás O’Leary, Tommy Bowe, Keith Earls and co.
If they are to sharpen their cutting edge in other respects they could do worse than improve their link play from line breaks. A couple of line breaks by David Wallace and Bowe last week, when both failed to link with Sexton’s support runs, spring to mind.
In addition to his world-class finishing, it’s not as if playing heads-up rugby isn’t one of Bowe’s strengths, and the likes of Jamie Heaslip, Sexton, Gordon D’Arcy, Brian O’Driscoll and Geordan Murphy all run good trailers.
There have been similar incidents in earlier games as well, such as when D’Arcy failed to link with O’Driscoll in Paris and when Earls subsequently failed to offload to Heaslip after the latter’s typically intelligent support run.
Recalling those two examples last week, and also D’Arcy’s failure to hold on to Sexton’s offload after the outhalf freed his arms beyond the gain line, perhaps there are signs this Ireland team are still getting used to playing with Sexton and maximising the threat posed by his running game.
Ireland have won the last eight championship meetings between the two. Their starting line-up have 111 Test tries to the Scots’ 32. The packs look set for a bruiser, but Ireland’s backs look much the sharper finishers.
If they can make more use of Murphy’s ability to hit the line and put players away, coupled with their cutting edge from set-pieces, Ireland ought to have more tries in them than Scotland.
LAST FIVE MEETINGS:(2009) Scotland 15 Ireland 22; (08) Ireland 34 Scotland 13; (07) Scotland 31 Ireland 21 (non-6N); Scotland 18 Ireland 19; (06) Ireland 15 Scotland 9; (05) Scotland 13 Ireland 40.
RESULTS SO FAR:Ireland: 29-11 v Italy (home), 10-33 v France (away), 20-16 v England (a), 27-12 v Wales (home). Scotland: 9-18 v France (home); 24-31 v Wales (away), 12-16 v Italy (away), 15-15 v England (home).
Forecast:Ireland to win.
