Seeing the future by analysing the past

Compiled by JOHN O'SULLIVAN

Compiled by JOHN O'SULLIVAN

WHO THE COACHES SELECTED

George North was injured so wasn’t available. Lee Byrne doesn’t make tomorrow’s match squad, James Hook is on the bench and Leigh Halfpenny switches from the right wing last March to fullback this time. Rhys Priestland is at outhalf. Wales have a whole new front row, Luke Charteris has usurped Bradley Davies while Toby Faletau has claimed the jersey of Ryan Jones. Rob Kearney takes over from Luke Fitzgerald, while scrumhalf Conor Murray and flanker Stephen Ferris are other alterations from last March. The Welsh team is appreciably stronger than the one that beat Ireland in the Six Nations

HOW THE MATCH UNFOLDED

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Ireland lost Eoin Reddan in the first passage of play with Peter Stringer coming in at scrumhalf but it didn’t appear to initially unsettle the visitors as they scored the game’s first try on two minutes. Brian O’Driscoll snaffled a pass from Tommy Bowe to provide Ireland with the early momentum. Ronan O’Gara converted but James Hook nudged Wales back into the game with two penalties. They lost prop Craig Mitchell on 12 minutes. The kicking duel continued with the Irish outhalf landing two further penalties before the interval to a long range response from Leigh Halfpenny. The game’s seminal moment arrived in the 50th minute after replacement Jonathan Sexton had sent a touch kick into the crowd. Welsh hooker Matthew Rees took a quick throw with another ball to scrumhalf Mike Phillips who galloped down the touchline to cross for a try. Referee Jonathan Kaplan consulted with Scottish touch judge Peter Allan who wrongly advised the try should stand. Hook kicked the conversion and a late penalty to confirm victory.

LESSONS FOR WALES

One of the more interesting statistics arising from the match is that Wales spent almost 12 minutes longer in Ireland’s half but had less time in possession. This reinforced the Welsh plan of putting an emphasis on the boot, in playing the game in their opponents’ territory and forcing them to work their way back out or else kick the ball back to them.Wales missed three times as many tackles yet only coughed up one try so their scramble defence was pretty good. The introduction of George North on the right wing, shifting Leigh Halfpenny to fullback and a maturing Rhys Priestland at outhalf seems to indicate that they will adopt amore fluent approach tactically. They have two thirds of their first choice front row back, a six foot 10 inch secondrow in Luke Charteris and the powerful ball carrying of the Tonga born young number eight Toby Faletau. They will be stronger and fitter (Spala, Poland and a drink ban) than they were last March.

LESSONS FOR IRELAND

They had more of the ball in the Millennium stadium but didn’t use it well enough and were made to pay harshly when switching off for a quick lineout, however illegal, that ultimately decided the contest. Ireland’s lineout, indeed set piece, was blemish free and they’ll look for a repeat. They’ll know that turnovers will be costly, so clearing out at rucks must be accurate and players can’t afford to get isolated, particularly with Sam Warburton’s predatory instincts. They’ll need to track the Welsh wingers coming in field. Ireland will look to get their ball carriers punching holes and offloading. The Springboks showed that the Welsh are vulnerable on the fringes and through the middle. Cardiff demonstrated that Ireland’s back play needs to be more subtle. They’ll use the cross kick to give Bowe his chance against Shane Williams and if the Welsh wings drop back, watch for Ronan O’Gara’s dinks over the top in midfield.