Close examination of the World Cup draw shows that Ireland have been very fortunate. By beating the two weakest teams in our pool, Romania and the US, we can guarantee ourselves a play-off against one of the third-best teams in the pools for a quarter-final place.

The opposition at this point could be one of a large number of teams, but all of them are sides that Ireland should be capable of beating. This, in turn, would lead to a quarter-final game in Lansdowne Road on Sunday, October 24th, most probably against France. Barring a major surprise the French should win their group, despite the fact that they are going through a very difficult patch. The prospect of a quarter-final against them in Dublin is about the most inviting of all the possibilities. Consider the likely fate of Wales, who should win their pool without too much difficulty, only to receive the reward of a quarterfinal against the number one ranked team in the world, Australia. I have no doubt that they would much prefer our route, which involves one extra match, but must represent a far more attractive means of reaching the semi-finals. I think it's fair to say that failure to reach the quarter-finals would represent a disaster for Ireland. If this happens we will have been beaten by one of the "weaker" rugby nations. Up to a few years ago we did not even pay them the courtesy of awarding international caps for matches against them. It is certainly an inviting prospect to think that on Sunday, October 31st, Ireland could be going onto the pitch at Twickenham for a semi-final against England or, most likely, New Zealand.

Strangely, this comes against a background in which Ireland performances have not been very encouraging, particularly in the games against the provinces, where the team has struggled to show any great form. These matches were always going to be difficult, since the Irish players were playing against colleagues and squad members. However, one would have hoped to see a greater degree of cohesion and, frankly, better results.

The team selection to date seems to indicate that defence is very much to the forefront in the planning process. The problems we will encounter on the pitch will be the same as before - the creation and taking of scoring opportunities. It is quite possible that we will have some difficulty against the United States and the Romanians, by virtue of the fact that our back line does not appear to be as lethal as that of the top sides in the tournament. In recent years we have not shown any ability to take our chances, even against weaker teams.

It would be fair to say that the trend last year, whereby the forwards in many games produced a plentiful supply of ball which was seldom put to great use, is likely to continue.

I'm interested too in how the Irish management approach the group matches. In many ways it is far more important that we have our top side available for the games against the US and Romania, which have to be won, rather than for the Australian game. In past World Cups top players have been rested in matches against weaker teams. I think we'll see a reversal of that trend on this occasion.

I know this has already been mooted by the management and led to some controversy, but if Ireland go ahead with that plan and it succeeds there won't be too much criticism afterwards.

From what I have seen of the recent series involving Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, it would be an upset if Ireland beat Australia anyway, since the margin between the Southern Hemisphere sides and ourselves appears to be as great if not greater than it ever was.

Everyone knows the Irish team is capable of causing an upset. What we are not good at is producing consistent performances. If there is going to be an upset then it would be far better to produce it in the possible quarter-final match against France rather than earlier in the competition. A surprise win against Australia would result in a quarter-final against Wales in Cardiff, and quite frankly I'd prefer our chances against the French in Dublin - even though we have not beaten them for a considerable period of time and have a very good record against Wales in recent years.

The Irish team appears comfortable in the front five, with strong players available to fill those positions. Obviously there are key players I would not like to see out of the side, but overall we have pretty good coverage in this area. In the back row the open side continues to be a cause of worry. I think Warren Gatland is very conscious of this and it will be interesting to see how the back row is arranged. It will have a profound bearing on the success or failure of the team. With the half backs well established, the middle of the field will probably see Brian O'Driscoll in partnership with Kevin Maggs as a centre pairing. I'm delighted that O'Driscoll, has emerged as a player of great quality. He brings to the side a scoring potential that has been lacking. But I'd prefer to see someone with more play making potential beside him; otherwise he is going to have to create from scraps.

On the wings Justin Bishop and Matt Mostyn appear to be favourites, because of their defence rather than their attacking abilities, while Conor O'Shea looks sure of his position at full back. O'Shea, though, has not shown the same attacking potential in the Ireland side in recent games which we know he is capable of.

In our first pool game, against the US, we are likely to try to use the ball wide. The Americans are generally good in the physical aspects, but have always been lacking in defence in the open spaces. We should try to use a quick-rucking game against them, but we have had some difficulty in this area. The game against Australia will be entirely different, and I suspect we will keep it as tight as possible. I don't see the US or Romania presenting Ireland with a serious challenge, and the team will know it will be a severe damage to their overall credibility to lose either of those games.

Overall it should be an exciting World Cup and will give us an opportunity to see if the margin between the hemispheres is as great as we think. We will also see how some of the weaker nations have progressed and, most importantly, we'll know how Ireland stand in the rugby firmament.

(In an interview with Johnny Watterson)