Today's Champion Chase PreviewIt's unwise to write off true champions, and if Moscow Flyer can summon up the reserves for one final hurrah in today's Queen Mother Champion Chase there won't be a dry eye in the house. Sentiment, however, isn't on nodding terms with history in this case, and it's hard to escape the conclusion that the massive crowd will be hailing a new king by 3.30 this afternoon.
The history in this case is stark. Only Skymas in 1977 was the same veteran age as Moscow Flyer is now when he landed the two-mile championship. And Badsworth Boy remains the only one to have won the great race on three occasions.
Statistics, as well everything else, then, seem to be conspiring against the great Irish champion.
The hope, however, comes from Moscow Flyer himself. To lift the footballing cliche, form is temporary, but class is permanent.
Many professionals out there who are long enough in the tooth to remember Skymas and many other champions are still willing to put their hands on any book you care to throw at them and swear they haven't seen a better two-mile champion. The evidence of three runs this season, plus an under-whelming workout 11 days ago, indicates Moscow Flyer isn't as good as he was, but the intriguing possibility remains he may not have to be.
On the face of it, this year's renewal is not a patch on 2005, when Moscow Flyer repulsed a vintage field that included the top class pair Well Chief and Azertyuiop. Even a cursory look at this afternoon's race reveals nothing of that calibre.
Of the four other Irish contenders, the second-season novices Watson Lake and Newmill have it all to do, and might even prefer softer ground.
More concrete cases can be made for Central House and Fota Island. The latter has important course experience, having landed the Grand Annual here last year, and quicker going will also be to his advantage. An upward profile makes him quite an attractive contender for Mouse Morris, who won the race 20 years ago with Buck House.
Victory for Central House would finally banish the image of jockey Roger Loughran's premature celebrations at Leopardstown over Christmas, and Dessie Hughes' horse is in the form of his life. But much of that life has been spent being trial tackle for Moscow Flyer.
Boil it down, and it's hard to ignore the same bookmakers who are getting ready to lay Moscow Flyer for all they are worth.
They have Kauto Star as favourite, and he does look the one horse who still has the potential to get even better and maybe exert something of a grip on this division.
Paul Nicholls's horse has run over fences just four times, but the last of them, in December's Tingle Creek, was an exceptional performance.
He is on the up, and, in an environment that almost invariably proves hostile to horses trading on past glories, that is vital.
Fota Island looks another of those improving types and, with a lot going for him, may well emerge best of the Irish.
But it's also hard to forget he had only 10st on his back when winning the Grand Annual, and Kauto Star's claims make just that little bit more appeal.
But even those getting ready to empty their pockets on Kauto Star might find swallowing their disappointment easier if it is indeed Moscow Flyer who manages to trump them.
There may be betting turnover of almost €1 billion floating about this week, but in these circumstances there will always be room at Cheltenham for sentiment.
