WORLD HURDLE:ON OFFICIAL handicap figures Sentry Duty is a stone inferior to Big Buck's in today's Ladbrokes World Hurdle but the figures that will concentrate a lot of minds before today's big race are the prohibitive odds on a favourite that even his biggest admirers concede is quirky.
With the sponsors offering a miserly 4 to 7 about Big Buck’s recording back-to-back victories in the staying crown, one could reasonably hope for “admirably straight-forward” rather than “potential heart-attack”.
Trainer Paul Nicholls admitted yesterday: “He’s a real old character and I am sure he will get himself beat one day by pulling himself up. I can’t say he is a banker due to his character. On form he will win – but one day he will get himself beat.”
Certainly the Nicholls team will be praying nothing happens to Ruby Walsh before 3.20pm today.
Ireland’s champion jockey is crucial to Big Buck’s, a horse whose kinks and moods Walsh finesses like no other. Last year’s race was a perfect example as Big Buck’s came on and off the bridle before being delivered to pounce on Punchestowns at precisely the right moment. Since then the title-holder has been impressive in all his starts and today’s ground will hold no terrors for a horse that has won twice on good ground at Liverpool.
But he remains a dreadfully short price and, while Karabak is back for more and Tidal Bay is back to hurdles, the danger to Big Buck’s today could be in the way the race is run. Walsh likes to be patient on the favourite but no one is going to be more patient than Barry Geraghty on Sentry Duty.
The latter is unproven at the distance. Nicky Henderson’s horse beat Katchit easily here on New Year’s Day over two miles and five but when this race gets into crucial territory today, Sentry Duty will be entering the unknown.
“He will be there at two and a half miles, maybe two and three quarters and then we are into virgin territory,” said Henderson.
“He needs to be very, very fresh and I had no intention of finding out if he stays before the race.”
There were bits of 14 to 1 about Sentry Duty yesterday and that makes him a far more attractive option to take a chance on.
There are five Irish hopefuls trying to upset Big Buck’s with Cousin Vinny also returning to hurdles after a less than happy season over fences. The 2006 Gold Cup hero War Of Attrition will be a sentimental favourite after his own return to the smaller obstacles yielded a pair of Grade Two victories. His jockey Davy Russell said: “He is back to somewhere near his old self and I think he has a great chance.”
War Of Attrition can reasonably be expected to run into a place, but if Big Buck’s is to be upset, then Sentry Duty looks the value bet.
1. Sentry Duty
2. Big Buck’s
3. Katchit
