Cheltenham v Reading

Reading have already pulled off one surprise this season by knocking Leeds United out of the League Cup at Elland Road. Could this be a case of the biters bit? Knocking out Tiverton and Boreham Wood has not given Cheltenham much of a prima facie case for beating First Division opposition now, but even if the Conference side do not win today, Reading's poor home form would still give them a chance at Elm Park.

Shock rating: Fair.

Crystal Palace v Scunthorpe

Victory for Scunthorpe at Selhurst Park would be less a shock than a mild tremor. Crystal Palace's wretched home form is all the more bizarre when compared to their excellent performances on opponents' grounds. Steve Coppell's side have won only two games at Selhurst all season, "away" to Wimbledon in the Premier League and home to Hull in the League Cup. Scunthorpe's own away form gives the Third Division side a good chance.

Shock rating: Good.

Leeds Utd v Oxford Utd

Four years ago Oxford won a fourth round replay 3-2 at Elland Road and already this season Reading have removed Leeds from the League Cup by a similar score. So although Leeds have acquired greater consistency under George Graham, with a defence less inclined to concede the sort of goals given away against Oxford in the previous meeting, the potential for embarrassment remains. And Graham cannot have forgotten a certain third round tie at Wrexham in 1992.

Shock rating: Modest.

Portsmouth v Aston Villa

Aston Villa look too strong all round to go out to the First Division's bottom team but it is only a year since Portsmouth reached the quarter-finals with victories at Wolves and Leeds along the way. Fratton Park's financial problems have led to delays in the players being paid yet this has produced a stronger team spirit and better performances on the field. If this is one of Villa's dull days expect Pompey to chime in with an upset.

Shock rating: Modest.

Watford v Sheffield Wed

Sixteen years ago to the day Jan Lohman's lone goal brought Graham Taylor's rising Watford team a famous third round victory over Manchester United. With Taylor and Elton John back in charge at Vicarage Road, Watford are again on the rise and virtually certain of a return to the First Division next season. Sheffield Wednesday, their resurgence under Ron Atkinson having quickly subsided, could well go out this afternoon.

Shock rating: Good.

Tottenham v Fulham

This is roughly where Kevin Keegan came in, or rather went out, resigning at Newcastle United three days after a tricky third round tie in London. The chances of Fulham winning at Spurs on Monday are a mite slimmer than Newcastle's appeared to be at Charlton a year ago, yet there were some close calls in the 1-1 draw at the Valley and the continuing uncertainties at White Hart Lane must give the Second Division team a chance.

Shock rating: Modest.