David Trezeguet's assertion on Saturday night that Group Four's "first top team to lose is dead", doesn't look too far wide of the mark after a weekend on which the qualification favourites continued to make life difficult for themselves and the Republic of Ireland failed to capitalise on their rivals' blundering by beating an average Israeli side in Tel Aviv.

The number of draws Group Four has produced makes it unlikely to yield a second automatic qualifying place for Germany next summer, as only the top two second-placed sides progress without the need to win a play-off.

A single defeat would leave any of the four contenders for first place at a major disadvantage as the second half of the campaign gets under way.

The failure of the French to assert themselves with more conviction has been astonishing. New coach Raymond Domenech has had a good deal to cope with between injuries and retirements, but his side's failure to beat any of their chief rivals for a place at the finals in Paris is still pretty much inexcusable.

In every other group bar one the leading side has at least 12 points, and in the case of the one exception, Serbia and Montenegro, 10 points have been taken from just four games.

When the fixture list for Group Four was agreed in Dublin the general expectation would have been that France might achieve a similar sort of advantage after three home games and trips to Cyprus and the Faroe Islands. Instead, the French must win at least one and almost certainly two of their games in Tel Aviv, Basel and Dublin if they are to have any real prospect of living up to their billing as the group's top seeds.

The feeling among the media in Paris is that the former Lyon boss will keep his job until the end of the campaign even if the 1998 World Cup champions fail to qualify for the finals.

Defeat, or even another draw, in Tel Aviv tomorrow night, however, would surely tempt the French federation to intervene, particularly if it was felt that a new man - Laurent Blanc for instance - could bring back players like Claude Makelele and Robert Pires, both of whom fell out with Domenech early on.

The hosts may be rather limited, but they will certainly be up for the game, not least for political reasons as some of the local association's officials chirpily confirmed in the wake of Ireland's draw there over the weekend.

Regardless of the result, though, the Israelis look certain to fade between now and October as they head into tough games in Switzerland and Ireland needing, at the very least, to match the draw they achieved in Paris last year.

The Swiss, though, look capable of maintaining their challenge to the end and Brian Kerr's men could well find themselves having to beat them in their final group match in order to secure even second place and yet another trip to the play-offs.

There would have been a little more breathing space, of course, had the Republic taken all three points at the Ramat-Gan stadium on Saturday night.

Instead, a performance disappointingly devoid of ambition yielded just one point, and the upshot is the Irish need to start beating decent teams in qualifying group games again, something they have done only once in the last five years.

On that occasion, against the Netherlands in September, 2001, in Lansdowne Road, Mick McCarthy's side were largely outplayed, but, after being reduced to 10 men by Gary Kelly's sending off, scored completely against the run of play to put the Dutch out.

On current form none of the three teams to come here this year should be anything like as strong as Holland were that day. However, that is hardly the point. Leading Group Four on goal difference at the half-way point is better than we had any right to expect of this Irish team, but Saturday's game might have provided the first real evidence that Kerr and his players have the wherewithal to go on and build on what they have achieved to date.

Now it will be early June at the very earliest, and Israel's visit to Dublin, before we get a positive sign.

A defeat then, as Trezeguet says, would probably mean the end of Ireland's qualification aspirations, but even another draw would, in World Cup terms, leaves the Irish at death's door before the summer break.