Overview: Gerry Thornley outlines why Ireland can be regarded as contenders for the Grand Slam for the first time since 1948 (on St Patrick's weekend in Cardiff)
It is all a little unnerving really. Ireland have the most settled side in the championship, a comparatively good state of health brought about by careful player management and the 10-week pre-season, England and France both appear to be rebuilding, and the itinerary could have been written out on the back of a Limerick beer mat.
Italy first up, followed by Scotland (albeit only six days later) offers the chance for momentum. Then comes a week's respite before facing England at home, and another week's rest before entertaining France, both of whom will presumably have had to provide their pound of flesh for their clubs in the interim.
About the only discordant note in all of this is the quick turnaround before the, eh, Grand Slam decider in Cardiff, graveyard for many a championship-chasing Irish side in the dim and distant, a reminder of which was provided by Ronan O'Gara's last-gasp drop goal two years ago and Denis Hickie's ensuing flirtation with the offside line. Still, it will be St Patrick's weekend as well. Ye Gods, it looks far too positive, worryingly perfect.
Nevertheless, with only one Grand Slam since 1948, and no championships since 1985, it just seems like Ireland's time. The RBS Six Nations had become a bit of a bore by the turn of the millennium, with all that guff emanating from England about the Big Two breaking away for meaningful competition, but for years Ireland have almost single-handedly saved the tournament and ended that debate.
Almost regrettably, Grand Slams have become more prevalent in recent times, if exclusively the preserve of the Big Two, as if winning the championship in its own right no longer carries the same kudos. Yet the flip side of this championship being more competitive (Wales are undoubtedly rejuvenated, and both Scotland and Italy should be better than last year) is that winning a Slam will be as difficult as ever.
Matt Williams, for one, is pretty certain that there won't be a Grand Slam this year, and Brian O'Driscoll made the valid point that it took the eventual World Cup winners five attempts to finally nail one.
In fairness to Clive Woodward, who endured those heartbreaking one-off defeats to the three Celtic countries and France, he never gave that breakaway nonsense any credence. Now he has moved on to greener pastures, and Andy Robinson has been left with a sizeable rebuilding job.
With their talent and strength in depth, the red rose could well bloom again, but if nothing else they have lost that mystique of world champions, not least because their team bears scarcely the faintest resemblance to the one which unforgettably won the throne in Sydney 16 long months ago.
Woodward's presence will be still all pervasive over the next seven weeks, given 14 of the 15 matches will also be trials for the Lions tour to New Zealand this summer. There are wise sages out there who believe that the distraction of a Lions tour might leave the door ajar for France, who have won Grand Slams in three of the last four campaigns which preceded Lions tours.
Yet here we are, in 2005, all of us - from rival coaches to the entire rugby media, including their own - slipping back into apparently trite clichés about les Bleus. Which side of the mercurial French will turn up, the headless cockerels or the ones with their heads screwed on? It's as if the four Grand Slams of the last eight years, including last season, have been overlooked. Yet the lapse back in time seems entirely valid.
A week after beating Australia and being declared the best side in the world, a particularly headless France were beaten by Argentina and hammered by the All Blacks. Yet their club sides have hit the ground running after their Christmas break and Fabien Pelous maintains they are physically fitter now and better able to cope with the week-to-week intensity of Test rugby than they were in November.
Without the long-established, all-singing, all-dancing but injured trio of Serge Betsen, Imanol Harinordoquy and Olivier Magne, there are also question marks over a restructured back row, in which the ultra-physical Sebastian Chabal is considered an impact player and Patrick Tabacco, like the halves, is hardly picked with hosting the 2007 World Cup in mind, though Julien Bonnaire looks a seriously good player. And the form of Toulouse, Stade Français and Biarritz reminded us that the French have so much strength in depth that, say, the back row could turn out to be quite a unit.
Wales' campaign looks almost as fickle, while making up the numbers still looks to be the lot of the Scots and the Italians, though both look better equipped to question that theory than a year ago. Ultimately though, you sense careers might hang on their dog-eat-dog affair in Murrayfield in round three.
The bookies still make Ireland third favourites for both the championship and the Slam, yet three runners-up finishes in the last four years shows that they have not been that far away.
A Slam is still a monumental ask, and were it to go down to points difference, the itinerary also suggests that England (with Italy and Scotland at Twickenham) or France might be more likely to run up the bigger routs.
But that beer mat could come in useful on March 19th.
TEAM BY TEAM
FRANCE
The whispering campaign against the increasingly unpopular Bernard Laporte (whose notions of reconverting hooker William Servat into a number eight and playing centre Brian Liebenberg at outhalf have been deemed daft) is liable to intensify further if his conservative selections backfire. Recalled halfbacks Pierre Mignoni and rejuvenated Yann Delaigue are winning only their 14th and 13th caps, fully eight and 11 years respectively after their first.
KEY MAN: Fabien Pelous, partly because he looks like the only one sure to be still standing providing he avoids injury, but also because amid such uncertainty the legendary four-time Grand Slam winner is more capable than anyone of holding them together.
PROSPECTS: Scotland first up looks already like a laboured win, and then comes a make-or-break trek to Twickenham. If Delaigue finally delivers on his talent and it all somehow knits together, they could come to Dublin in the penultimate round with another Slam in sight, but it's been eight years since they achieved the Slam with this itinerary and the odds are on a return for Jean-Baptiste Elissalde and Frederic Michalak, whom Laporte should surely be continuing his investment in anyhow.
FIVE-YEAR FORMGUIDE: 2nd, 5th, 1st, 3rd, 1st. ODDS (Paddy Power): to win Six Nations 13 to 8, to win Grand Slam 5 to 1. FORECAST: Third.
IRELAND
The talk of the Six Nations before a ball is kicked and with good reason, four wins out of five in three of the last four years. There'll always be doubts about the scrum, but the lineout and the back line are world-class, and the five-year stats show they've been the most disciplined side in the championship, as well as the second most prolific try scorers and winners.
KEY MAN: That's another thing about this Irish team, it could almost be any one of them. They could possibly even cope without some bloke called Brian, but he remains the standardbearer, the talisman, the match-winner who can inspire his country and strike fear into opponents.
PROSPECTS: Almost too good, and all could swiftly change if the Italian bruisers exact a toll six days before Edinburgh and, say, John Hayes or Peter Stringer were laid low at any juncture. Overhyping Ireland's chances and doubts about whether they can cope with the expectation levels have been trotted out, yet surely it goes with the territory? Mentally they're a different breed from previous Irish outfits and, anyway, as England discovered, you don't win Grand Slams or even Championships surreptitiously, via the tradesman's entrance.
FIVE-YEAR FORMGUIDE: 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd. ODDS: Six Nations: 9 to 4, Grand Slam: 5to 1. FORECAST: First.
ENGLAND
Bedevilled by retirements and injuries, they are in truth the world champions in name only, for they are devoid of the leaders (Johnson, Dallaglio and co), the standardbearers (Hill, Tindall, Greenwood etc) and the match-winner (Wilkinson) who conquered the globe.
Yet they put the Boks to the sword like no one else last autumn, and would have beaten the Wallabies too but for Charlie Hodgson's flakiness and the self-imposed lack of a back-up kicker.
KEY MAN: A bruising tight five and the experienced Matt Dawson should still contrive to give Charlie Hodgson (a more naturally talented player than Wilkinson) the ammunition to control proceedings and launch a potent back line, albeit with an unproven midfield, but can he deliver, and can he kick his goals? If he can, England are in business.
PROSPECTS: Straight into a white hot Millennium Stadium, although that ought to concentrate their minds. Nor, one senses, will their season hinge psychologically to the extent that Wales' campaign might do on this opening joust. And the suspicion lurks that their tight five might shift enough pianos for them to escape alive this evening.
FIVE-YEAR FORMGUIDE: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 3rd. ODDS: Six Nations: 15 to 8, Grand Slam 9 to 2. FORECAST: Second.
WALES
Reluctant professionals at first, the Welsh have undoubtedly been rejuvenated by the domestic streamlining, prompting a new breed of player. Steve Hanson let them off their leash and gave them confidence, to which Mike Ruddock has added some badly needed muscle up front. Only a major scalp away, and but for a couple of refereeing decisions, would have had one against the Boks or the All Blacks last autumn.
KEY MAN: One of the most astounding talents of his time at schoolboy and under-21 level, some players can be almost too talented and Gavin Henson's career path has been somewhat akin to that of Ireland's Gordon D'Arcy.
Slightly daft as a brush too, now he is delivering. A natural-born star, up there with King Carlos, he can win matches for Wales and is there a bigger boot in the Northern Hemisphere?
PROSPECTS: Such is their tendency to drift from euphoria to the depths of despair - with little time for anything in between - that their whole season seems to hinge on the opener against England in Cardiff, all the more so as their next three games are away to Italy, France and Scotland.
FIVE-YEAR FORMGUIDE: 4th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 4th. ODDS: Six Nations: 10 to 1, Grand Slam: 40 to 1. FORECAST: Fourth.
ITALY
Three wins in 25 championship games tells of teething times for the Azzurri. But, led by Marco Bortolami, they come into this campaign in what seems their best condition since the old guard launched their historic arrival against the Scots in 2000. Much of their old ill-discipline has been cast aside, and a settled, mightily effective pack and linchpin at scrumhalf have been supplemented by a few new faces outside them.
KEY MAN: Luciano Orquera. Including Dominguez' own return to arms for 12 Tests, Orquera will be the 10th outhalf to fill the great man's boots since his first retirement at the end of the 2000 Six Nations. At 5ft 7ins, the inexperienced 23-year-old hardly has the cut of a Test outhalf but on his sleight shoulders do much of the Azzurri's hopes depend.
PROSPECTS: With their traditional optimism starting out, and allowing for a tendency to let their heads drop if this is misplaced, emerging with credit from their opener against Ireland seems imperative if they are to have good pop at the similarly brittle Welsh, whose own mood will depend so much on how they emerge from today's joust with England. For all their optimism, avoiding the wooden spoon for the third year running would be an achievement.
FIVE-YEAR FORMGUIDE: 6th, 6th, 6th, 5th, 5th. ODDS: Six Nations: 1,000 to 1. GS 1,000 to 1. FORECAST: 5th.
SCOTLAND
Beset by political in-fighting, with the amateur old guard shooting the professional messengers, the chronic shortage of indigenous talent is now coming home to roost after the kilted Kiwi years. Reminds us of us, circa the mid to late 1990s, don't they? Still, there have been flickerings of light from the previously underperforming districts of late, in Europe and the Celtic League, as if the in-fighting was a bit of a wake-up call.
KEY MAN: Simon Taylor. The surprise, uncapped Lions tourist of four years ago has vindicated that selection since, though the injury which curtailed his Oz odyssey was, alas, also a pointer of things to come. A wonderfully athletic number eight of all the talents, no one could inspire his team and supporters alike. Could be back for round three, but will he even make a starting grid?
PROSPECTS: An injury crisis in their one area of strength, the back row, doesn't augur well. They'll be well organised and spirited, but lack a cutting edge. A credible effort in Paris might set them up for a tilt at Ireland, but Italy at home in round three looks their best bet of avoiding another wooden spoon. If so, what will the messengers do with the outsider Williams, and Willie Anderson? You'd fear for them.
FIVE-YEAR FORMGUIDE: 5th, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 6th. ODDS: Six Nations: 200 to 1, Grand Slam 1,000 to 1. FORECAST: 6th.
