Euro 2024Explainer

How can Ireland still qualify for the Euro 2024 finals?

Automatic qualification looks a faint hope and Albania’s 2-0 defeat of Poland has damaged Irish chances of progressing to Germany via the play-offs

A disappointed Adam Idah and Shane Duffy following Ireland's defeat to the Netherlands at the Aviva Stadium. Photograph: Bryan Keane/Inpho
A disappointed Adam Idah and Shane Duffy following Ireland's defeat to the Netherlands at the Aviva Stadium. Photograph: Bryan Keane/Inpho
Gavin Cummiskey's picture
Gavin Cummiskey
Mon Sept 11 2023 - 17:09

Can the Republic of Ireland still qualify for the European Championships in Germany next summer? Yes.

Automatically? Yes. Despite losing four of their five games in an eight-match group, if Ireland can win their last three matches against Greece and Gibraltar in October, and the Netherlands in November, they could finish runners-up behind France, if other results go their way.

For example? It would require total collapse from Ronald Koeman’s Dutch side and a serious stumble by Greece. Ireland also need three victories from their last three outings, to leave them on 12 points. The Netherlands have nine points from four matches and Greece have nine points from five matches. So, if Greece lose to Ireland and France, and beat the Netherlands, they will finish on 12 points. The Dutch will beat part-timers Gibraltar on November 18th but if they lose to France, Greece and Ireland, it will come down to goal difference.

A three-way-tie between Greece, Ireland and the Netherlands? Yes, that will be decided by results against each other. Ireland already lost 2-1 to both of them. If that cannot sort them out it comes down to goal difference (in the games they played each other). Failing that, it comes down to total goal difference. Currently, Ireland have scored five goals and conceded seven while the Netherlands have eight goals and conceded five. Greece have 10, conceding five.

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So it is all to play for? No, not at all. France look certain to top Group B, having won their first five matches, with second place probably secured by Greece or the Netherlands in October. They face off in Athens on October 16th.

When do Ireland play Greece? Gus Poyet’s side come to Dublin on October 13th and Ireland must travel to Amsterdam for the November 18th fixture.

What about the play-offs? Albania’s 2-0 defeat of Poland on Sunday night has damaged Irish chances of progressing to Germany 2024 via the play-offs next March. Albania are ranked lower than Ireland by Uefa so if they qualify automatically our play-off berth would be taken by Poland, who are ranked higher.

How does this work? The play-offs are based on Nations League results from 2022 and, as you might remember, Ireland lost to Armenia, Ukraine and Scotland to leave them ranked 27th in European football. At the moment, Norway and Ireland will not reach the play-offs, which means no Erling Haaland or Evan Ferguson at next year’s Euros.