Nobody can agree on whether the League of Ireland has undergone a stark drop in standards or wild spike in competitiveness. Either way, Irish football has morphed into an entertainment industry.
“I think if we are being honest, the standard hasn’t been great, has it?” said Shamrock Rovers boss Stephen Bradley recently.
The defending champions have, on the one hand, returned to the Europa Conference League group stages, which could bank them over €5 million in Uefa prize money, while phoning in their worst domestic campaign since 2017.
However Stephen Kenny, the St Patrick’s Athletic manager and former international boss, disagrees with his coaching colleague.
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“There are very good coaches, a lot of good players and teams are getting better,” Kenny told the LOI Central podcast. “Next season, you feel, the weakest team will be very strong.”
Rovers could still win a fifth successive Premier Division title with 61 points by beating Drogheda United on Friday night, Dundalk next Sunday and Waterford on November 1st at Tallaght Stadium.
On paper, Bradley’s assertion is accurate but this season’s numbers, when we break them down, do not add up.
“It’s a comment I’d strongly disagree with,” countered Ruaidhrí Higgins, the Derry City manager. “There is a serious spread of quality players [across all 10 clubs], rather than two or three dominating as you would have seen previously.”
The points tallies show Derry have gone backwards in 2024. After Monday’s uninspiring home 1-1 draw with Sligo Rovers, they lie second in the table on 52 points, that’s a drop from 58 points at this stage last year and 65 points in 2022, when on both occasions they finished runners-up in the title race to Rovers. Final tallies of 65 and 66 points from the past two seasons would have seen the Candystripes crowned champions this time around.
Sixty points might still prove the magic number if Shelbourne can somehow overcome a horrendous collapse, with one win in their last 13 games, and providing Damien Duff can calm the horses around Drumcondra to inspire victory over Waterford at Tolka Park on Friday night and subsequently visitors Drogheda the following week.
Virgin Media will provide split-screen updates from Tolka to Oriel Park as Derry’s uglier freefall, one win from nine, possibly slams into a Dundalk miracle. Or maybe Higgins’s men will hang on and take the title with the lowest ever points total of 58, by winning two of their last three ties.
And to think, Shamrock Rovers’ 72 points last year, a drop of seven from 2022, was used as evidence to note their decline. This bizarre, unpredictable season is either a blip or sign of exciting times ahead. Nobody knows for certain.
It is also conceivable that Derry City play Drogheda United in the FAI Cup final on November 10th, with European football on the line for both clubs. If the squad built upon local billionaire Philip O’Doherty’s investment cannot relegate Dundalk on Friday night, St Patrick’s Athletic and Galway United are primed to squeeze Derry into fifth place.
Some certainty is needed. Anything less than nine points from their last three games and Dundalk are going down, with Derry and Shamrock Rovers visiting Oriel Park over the next 10 days.
St Pat’s entertain Galway at Richmond Park on Friday, fourth versus fifth, both on 50 points and just two points behind Derry in second and Rovers in third. European football remains within touching distance for all four clubs which means at least one, and probably two, have to miss out.
Ignoring the Kenny factor, just for a moment, St Pat’s like Derry have regressed. They are currently nine points off their 2023 tally with three games remaining, eight points off 2022 and 10 off 2021.
Under Kenny, however, they could finish with 10 straight wins by rolling over Galway, Derry and Sligo away to finish on 59 points, which would at least secure a Europa qualifier next summer. Kenny’s five-year contract already looks like shrewd business by St Pat’s owner Garrett Kelleher.
Rovers are understandably distracted by upcoming trips to Belfast, Vienna and London but a live possibility of being elbowed off the European stage in 2025 should narrow their focus. Last year, when they missed out on the group stages, the Tallaght club posted losses of €2.3 million.
It’s by no means a straight path for Rovers as successive trips to Louth have the potential for disaster. Drogheda and Dundalk both get a cut off the champions either side of The Hoops playing Larne at Windsor Park next Thursday. But if Rovers win all three games then they would finish on 61 points and the champions’ better current goal difference would ensure Shels have no room for any dropped points.
Fascinatingly, for the neutrals, the Louth derby at Weavers Park on November 1st could decide automatic relegation with the winner rerouted to a playoff.
Shels must be desperate to avoid a similar final-day showdown at the Brandywell. Snap wins at home to Waterford and Drogheda next Friday should guide the Duff project from promotion in 2021 to the promised land.
Losing Will Jarvis and Gavin Molloy midseason deeply damaged Shels’ title aspirations as progress slowed significantly – they need two wins and 10 more goals to match last season’s final tally, when they finished fourth.
Predictions are like a coin toss. Nonetheless, Shels to be crowned champions next Friday at Tolka by cutting loose against Waterford and then beating a Drogheda outfit that remain on course to win the cup, qualify for Europe and suffer relegation.
Normality forsook this league a long time ago.
End of season run-ins
Shelbourne (54pts, goals 34-25, difference +9)
18/10 Waterford (h)
25/10 Drogheda Untied (h)
1/11 Derry City (a)
Derry City (52pts, 46-29, +17)
18/10 Dundalk (a)
25/10 St Patrick’s Athletic (a)
1/11 Shelbourne (h)
Shamrock Rovers (52pts, 46-34, +12)
18/10 Drogheda United (a)
27/10 Dundalk (a)
1/11 Waterford (h)
St Patrick’s Athletic (50pts, 46-36, +10)
18/10 Galway United (h)
25/10 Derry City (h)
1/11 Sligo Rovers (a)
Galway United (50pts, 29-24, +5)
18/10 St Patrick’s Athletic (a)
25/10 Sligo Rovers (h)
1/11 Bohemians (a)
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