Alex Ferguson expects to know in four games' time who will be Manchester United's major Premier League title rivals this season.

At the end of 'Grand Slam Sunday', Arsenal were in pole position, heading United by a point thanks to their 1-0 win over Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium.

Yet Ferguson's team had every reason to feel pleased with themselves, having recorded a win over Liverpool on Merseyside, something Arsenal failed to do earlier in the campaign.

With Chelsea now trailing and Liverpool pushed out of the top four by Manchester City, it is beginning to shape up like the two-horse race Ferguson always suspected.

The United manager has always used January 1st as the barometer of which teams will be in contention come the season's end. And, while it would be easy to start talking of a straight fight between himself and old adversary Arsene Wenger, Ferguson is not about to change his long-held view.

"I always think it is important to be up there once you get through the Christmas period," he said.

"If we are around the top on January 1st we will have an outstanding chance of winning the league and we will also know who our challengers are going to be."

United's festive programme is not an easy one given they open up against David Moyes' progressive Everton side on Sunday before tackling trips to Sunderland and West Ham, where the Red Devils were beaten last term.

They round off on New Year's Day against Birmingham, by which time Ferguson feels he will be in a better position to judge who is going to finish where.

But with Carlos Tevez's instinctive strike sealing a fifth Anfield win in six seasons, Ferguson can feel confident about his side's chances of retaining their championship given he also believes results involving the top four will prove crucial.

In three matches, two of which were away, including at Arsenal, United have collected seven points.

Only William Gallas' late leveller in north London prevented United collecting maximum points and already the April 12 rematch with the Gunners is looking like a key date in the campaign.

"It was a massive win," said Ferguson.  "I said beforehand the games between the top sides would be significant and this is definitely one.

"It was very frenetic, a typical Liverpool-Man United game but I certainly don't regard it as a smash-and-grab victory at all.

"In matches like that, when there are so many free-kicks, it is hard for either team to play any flowing football. But when we did, I thought we were the better team."