Ireland need pot luck in World Cup qualifying draw

Spare a thought for Zimbabwe as you tune into Saturday afternoon's draw for the next World Cup's qualifying stages: thrown out of a Fifa tournament for ropey financials . . . it really doesn't bear thinking about.

The FAI are okay, of course, given that their most controversial deal was with the game’s world governing body itself.

Despite the evidence to the contrary, John Delaney explained that one away on the basis of Sepp Blatter's attempts at humour after their initial post-Paris meeting six years ago.

Half the auditorium would be hoping to be on the receiving end of one of his wisecracks this afternoon if there was anything in that.

The more traditional route to a Fifa related windfall is supposed to involve qualifying for one of their tournaments and while the association makes much of the fact they don't budget for it, they could certainly do with their management team springing the sort of surprise required to get to Russia in three years' time.

Both Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane suggested in pretty stark terms when they were originally appointed that the job spec involved getting the team to France.

That dream may not be quite dead but it has seen better days and even the Corkman’s fallback requirement for a new contract that “we’re a bit unlucky and we’ve done really well and the progress has been there for everyone to see,” might not stand up to close scrutiny.

Nevertheless, it seems the pair will be in charge regardless of how the current campaign finishes and having been fairly unfortunate when Ireland were second seeds a couple of years ago they need the gods to be on their side this afternoon given that Ireland will this time be in Pot Four.

Perhaps fortunate

That, as it happens, is where Jack Charlton's men started out in the draw for the 1990 World Cup, the first the country ever qualified for, and that, we've all recently been remembering recently, didn't end too badly.

Ireland were perhaps fortunate then with a couple of the teams they were drawn against but Spain were decent top seeds and yet they were pushed all the way for top spot with every home game won and important points picked up on the road.

Sadly, it is hard to imagine the current team achieving anything close to it.

A kind draw, though, would be a very good start with everyone on the lookout for the next campaign's Greece or even Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Just two, in fact, of the top seeds for the current campaign actually lead their groups at present but there is an enduring sense that the big guns eventually do enough to haul themselves over the line with their pedigree telling in the end.

Somewhat inevitably, that has left Romania, Croatia and Wales looking like the most attractive top seeds on offer this afternoon with Chris Coleman's side, for all the heroics of the last year or so, probably looking like the best of the lot, in some small part because they have only ever appeared at one major tournament, way back in 1958, when they benefited from the refusal of various other countries to take on Israel in a play-off.

O’Neill, speaking about the draw last week in Sligo, certainly made it clear that he could do without encountering the Germans again.

“Naturally, if you’re in the Wales camp at the minute you would be delighted that you’ve moved up there.

"It means you avoid certain sides [but] Germany are a quality side and eventually, while they might have had hiccups here and there, overall you just know that when the group is finished that Germany will qualify in our group, so that lessens your chances."

The optimism this time around was based to a considerable extent on the fact that, even allowing for the world champions coasting home, another team would qualify automatically with a third making it to play-offs.

Play-off

For the World Cup there will be just the one team going to Russia by right and if Ireland come in second then everything suggests that more good fortune, as it was before, would be required at the play-off draw stage.

Wales also look attractive because there is always the chance with a team that has one such prominent star that he might miss games or lose form at particular points in the campaign, something that might also apply to the likes of Portugal or Sweden, who are first and second seeds respectively.

Ultimately, though, Ireland will almost certainly need to improve significantly on what they have produced so far in the current campaign if they are to claim a top-two spot in the World Cup qualifiers.

A touch of good fortune would clearly help but whatever happens today, O’Neill and Keane will have to prove their worth on the road to Russia.