Fifa president Gianni Infantino is set to get his way on expanding the World Cup to 48 teams in 2026, a move which will boost his chances of re-election in 2019.
A vote to expand world football’s premier event by 16 teams is second on the agenda at today’s meeting of the Fifa Council in Zurich, with one insider claiming it is a “fait accompli”.
Increasing the number of teams at the World Cup was one of Infantino’s manifesto pledges last year, although his original idea was to follow predecessor Sepp Blatter’s preference for 40 teams.
But the two 40-team formats proposed by Fifa’s experts – eight groups of five or 10 groups of four, both followed by a 16-team knock-out – have failed to attract much support.
This led Infantino to leap to 48 teams, with his first idea being a one-off playoff between 32 teams to decide who should join 16 seeded teams in the current eight-groups-of-four format. That idea, however, was also panned, as it stretched the tournament beyond its current 32 days and meant 16 teams would be travelling to an event for just one match.
Infantino appears to have got it right, though, with his fourth attempt – 16 groups of three, followed by a 32-team knock-out.
This increases the number of games from 64 to 80 but the tournament stays at 32 days, with the semi-finalists playing seven games (including the third-place play-off), which is the same number as now.
The council meeting will actually have all four of the proposed expansion ideas on the table, as well as leaving the tournament at 32 teams, but nobody in Zurich is expecting anything other than strong support for the 16-groups-of- three plan.
Infantino has repeatedly said his main motivation for doing this is to give more nations a chance of experiencing the joy of a World Cup, which will bolster international football in developed markets and help its growth in new ones.
As evidence of international football’s inspirational qualities, Infantino has pointed to Costa Rica’s success in 2014 and the Euro 2016 runs by Iceland and Wales.
Leaked
But just in case this is not persuasive enough, Fifa has conducted some internal research for the council’s 33 members that has been widely leaked. This research suggests Infantino’s 48-team World Cup could bring in €920 million more in broadcasting, commercial and match-day revenue than the 2018 World Cup in Russia, taking total profits to nearly €4 billion.
Only the German federation has gone public with its concerns about the dilution in quality – many of the key details are likely to be left to a later date. These include Infantino’s proposed remedy to avoid the risk of teams colluding in their third games to eliminate the other member of the group – he has suggested settling draws with penalty shoot-outs.
The most contentious topic will be how these 16 extra slots are allocated among the six confederations, with the African and Asian nations expecting significant increases on their current four apiece.
