Ever since Sunday, April 14th, this thought has nagged away. It is that too often, much too often, much too much is made of one 90 minutes. It is the reading, or mis-reading, of a single game. And we are all guilty.
On that day in April came a scoreline from St James’ Park: Newcastle United 0, Sunderland 3. This was the cause of apoplexy – and horse-punching – on Tyneside and relief and spouting laughter on Wearside.
The result did not end the Newcastle career of manager Alan Pardew, though it reduce him substantially in the eyes of many supporters, but it did cement Paolo Di Canio's reputation at Sunderland.
With that one 90 minutes, Di Canio became a cult. “We want dirty knees too” became a chant, a t-shirt, that honoured Di Canio’s sliding touchline celebrations.
It felt like an over-reaction then and it still felt that in August even as fans and others talked up the possibilities of this season at Sunderland. There was optimism and it was not based on the reality of the victory at Newcastle.
Because the scoreline was dramatic, because Di Canio was dramatic and because it was Sunderland’s first win on Tyneside for 13 years, there was a wide and deep overstating of what had gone on at St James’. In the euphoria, what was forgotten was important.
The major detail here is Papiss Cisse’s disallowed goal in the 61st minute. At the time Sunderland were winning 1-0. Newcastle had been poor but were getting better. Pressure had been building since half-time and when Cisse scored it was 1-1. Sunderland were rocking.
Legitimate goal
But the goal – a legitimate goal – was disallowed for an alleged offside. Had it stood, not many would have had money on Sunderland winning.
But it was ruled out and despite Newcastle monopolising possession, Sunderland scored two fine goals on the break. Cue Di Canio mayhem, and cue, the following Saturday, a 1-0 win at home to Everton. Six points from two games, having previously taken just three from nine games, lifted Sunderland from 17th to 14th.
But what happened next? Sunderland went to Aston Villa and lost 6-1. Villa were below them at the time.
Yet too much was not read into that result. Instead Wearside was still investing in the 3-0 victory at Newcastle and Di Canio was given the authority to overhaul the squad to the extent that six of the starting XI at St James’ in April are no longer at the club. In came 14 new faces.
And of course it has gone badly wrong and Di Canio is gone. Sunderland host Newcastle tomorrow with one point from eight games and Gus Poyet in charge. They are looking at a third Premier League relegation in 10 years. Six months on, what does Newcastle 0 Sunderland 3 mean?
And then on Tuesday something happened. A man called Ferguson published a book that dwelt on the repercussions of a game at Middlesbrough in October, 2005.
Alex Ferguson named a Manchester United side that contained Van der Sar, Ferdinand, Silvestre, Scholes, Park, Rooney and Van Nistelrooy. Middlesbrough won 4-1.
Quite a lot was read into this 90 minutes, and – it must be conceded – justifiably so. It makes you think again.
Read it aloud
Roy Keane read so much into this 90, and read it aloud, that he never played for Manchester United again. This counters the idea that we exaggerate 90 minutes. You cannot really exaggerate Roy Keane's departure from Old Trafford. Eight years on it remains back-page news.
Keane was outraged by Middlesbrough 4 Manchester, United 1. He went onto MUTV and said so. He criticised team-mates and the consequent bust-up, as portrayed by Ferguson in his new book, left no room but for Keane to go. Those 90 minutes on Teesside proved to be a tipping point.
But there is a difference between those 90 minutes and this April’s. Keane’s United frustrations had been growing, and Ferguson says they originated from the midfielder’s declining capacities on the pitch.
That’s debateable and Ferguson does acknowledge in the 16-page chapter on Keane that the period leading towards October 2005 and beyond “wasn’t great for us in terms of trophies”.
Then he adds: “Transformations take longer than a year.”
Keane could see this. His angst was stemming in part from the length of time it was taking and his outburst post-Boro was presumably an accumulation of frustrations. The 90 minutes at the Riverside crystallised his disaffection.
Sunderland’s 3-0 win in April was not the same, it was a spark, a distortion. It was not the accumulation of patterns, it was the opposite, a snag. It lifted the club and Di Canio temporarily but the true pattern on Wearside was of decline. That continues. No club can keep on buying players who are not good enough and prosper.
Tomorrow, Sunderland may somehow excavate another triumphant 90 minutes, though it’s unlikely. If so, Poyet will be hailed.
If so, that will be reading too much into it.
The facts are that Sunderland have played 23 games at home in the league since the start of last season: they’ve won five. It will take more than one 90 minutes to alter that trajectory.
