WORLD CUP 2010: SOCCER ANALYST:WHAT FORMATION will win the World Cup? European champions Spain finally perform today, against Switzerland, with a guarantee of patient passing that can unlock any defensive system. The other major contenders are most dangerous on the counter-attack when possession has been retrieved in the middle third of the pitch.
Spain just keep hold of the ball and wear you down. It is Barcelona in blood red. They are prepared to be patient but we all saw how Inter Milan and Jose Mourinho’s tactics killed Barca. A brilliantly disciplined defensive and counter-attacking display is the main threat to Spain.
But that won’t happen for a while yet. Get ready for some quick one-touch football and magical movement. For Xavi and Iniesta, the main stage beckons.
But before favourites Spain unleash their fluency on the tournament let’s look at how the other big nations have set up shop so far.
The tactics of lesser teams will be influenced by efforts to deal with the pace of players like Messi, Van Persie, Robben, Torres and Villa.
The minnows all have a bit of a plan. A World Cup cannot be won by strangling the life out of others but it can kill off a few pretty teams in the process.
The real challengers will know how to maximise their main assets.
Football has changed in recent times with the most effective teams employing two holding midfielders in front of a back four.
It is all about setting up with a solid six-man defence and then breaking at pace and with accuracy.
Goals have been scarce, although there is no shortage of attacking intent, but the minimal return of a point has been crucial in game one. Portugal and Ivory Coast followed the usual trend for their opening day (England’s inept introduction excluded) by largely cancelling each other out.
The Portuguese also set up this way with Mendez and Meireles minding the house. Their main problem seems to be their lack of scoring options outside Cristiano Ronaldo – who is currently on an international goal drought.
Deco, in 73 matches, has five goals. Liedson has three in nine previous games, while Danny has one from 10 outings. In 92 matches that’s nine goals. Simao is a viable alternative with 21 goals in 80 caps.
The Ivory Coast looked the most disciplined of the African teams so far. They played with three tight together in midfield which sometimes became five.
This snuffed out the Ronaldo threat and they grew in confidence as a result. They started the second half like they wanted to go and win the game rather than take a point. Big, strong and organised, they needed Didier Drogba’s composure to take all three points, although he did snatch at a chance.
So, roughly speaking, 4-2-3-1 is the new way. Six hold, four attack basically. There is flexibility with one of the holding midfielders permitted to bomb forward when the occasion demands it.
The Germans are the best so far but Australia were shockingly bad. Germany use the vibrant and clever-running Ozil behind the tall Klose with Podolski and Muller providing decent width. This produced massive dividends. Pace and touch are the obvious necessities for the attacking four but Germany went for the jugular with one from Khedira and Schweinsteiger pushing it wide and then powering into the box. Lahm also caused plenty of damage, raiding from full-back.
The Netherlands are born for this type of system. De Jong and Van Bommel act as the cover for their full-backs as they sit in the middle and pass the ball about. Van der Wiel looked particularly impressive down the right wing.
I liked the Dutch because Denmark knew them so well – it was nearly a local derby – and they still got the job done. It does, however, look possible to strangle them up front. Van Persie, Sneijder or Elia are quality but none of them are a typical strong man like, say, Milito for Argentina (they have yet to need him). and Dirk Kuyt could be a flaw in the system.
Maradona allowed Messi and Tevez the freedom to go where they see fit while Higuain was the target up front with Di Maria hugging the left side of midfield. Veron and Mascherano just sat there and controlled it all.
England tried to use Lampard and Gerrard in similar roles but neither are effective in the primary responsibility of taking the ball off the defenders. Lampard doesn’t like doing the defensive stuff. The USA were able to cope with England’s inability to play the ball through the middle. Their central midfielders dropped deep and were able to shut down the threat of Wayne Rooney.
Italy’s use of the holding midfield has, in the past, been supplemented by players of technique and invention. That is not the case with those currently available to Lippi. Pirlo is due back by the knockout stages. Those in front of the midfielders are not clever enough to beat players. They look a busted flush but that is always the case with Italy in the early stages of a World Cup.
I should also deal with the ball problems. It is difficult to get it up and down from free-kicks around the box. Even Ronaldo struggled with it from free-kicks yesterday. From corners it is coming in so quickly it is scaring the life out of some goalkeepers. See Paraguay and Greece.
The Germans are sorted – having used the ball for the past six months in the Bundesliga.
So far, the officiating, for a range of men from Uzbekistan to Brazil, has been excellent. Contrary to general opinion, Uefa and Fifa put a massive effort into improving the consistency and the standard of refereeing for all the big tournaments.
There is a more lenient approach to run-of-the-mill incidents and a welcome clamping down on lunge tackling. This is not the Premier League.
There has been little controversy – besides Diego calling for yellow cards – but that will not last.
The only black spot is the pulling and dragging of jerseys as evidence by Walter Samuel grabbing the Nigerian centre-back for Gabriel Heinze’s goal. It meant the Nigerian couldn’t attack the ball. The referee was watching the ball. Besides that, they are doing fine. Some team will spoil all that come the last 16.
