Gerry Thornleylooks at the state of play and how the teams could end up as the pool stages enter the penultimate weekend

THREE TEAMS remain unbeaten – Harlequins, Toulouse and Cardiff Blues – but even they are not guaranteed a quarter-final berth entering the penultimate weekend of the pool stages as, realistically, 14 teams nurture hopes of qualifying for the last eight.

POOL ONE: Round five: Friday: Munster v Sale Sharks; ASM Clermont Auvergne v Montauban Round Six: Saturday, January 24th: Sale Sharks v ASM Clermont Auvergne; Montauban v Munster.

VICTORY FOR Munster on Friday evening will effectively guarantee the champions qualification for the knock-out stages for an 11th successive year, unless Clermont were to beat Montauban with a bonus point and do likewise away to Sale on Saturday week.

In other words, a win on Friday with a bonus point, or a loss by less than seven away to Montauban will ensure Munster top pool one by virtue of their head to head record with Clermont.

However, defeat to Sale would leave Munster perilously placed and in need of a favour from Clermont in what would then be a dramatic, last-day three-way fight for, most probably, one qualifying place.

POOL TWO: Round five: Friday – Edinburgh v Castres Olympique. Saturday: London Wasps v Leinster. Round Six: Sunday, January 25th: Leinster v Edinburgh; Castres Olympique v London Wasps.

LEINSTER’S DEFEAT to Castres in round four has opened the door for the English champions prior to Saturday’s encounter in front of a projected 30,000 crowd at Twickenham.

Victory by more than seven points would put Wasps above Leinster going into the last round of matches.

Defeat with a losing bonus point at Twickenham, provided they prevented Wasps from securing a bonus point, would leave Leinster ahead thanks to their 41-11 win in the initial meeting while a victory for Leinster would ensure them of qualification and leave them well placed to secure a home quarter-final.

POOL THREE: Round Five: Saturday: Perpignan v Ospreys; Leicester Tigers v Benetton Treviso. Round Six: Saturday, January 24th: Ospreys v Leicester Tigers; Benetton Treviso v Perpignan.

PRESUMING LEICESTER garner five points from their home game with Treviso, the Ospreys need at least a bonus point from their trek to Perpignan to stay in touch.

In that scenario, the Welsh region would then need to beat Leicester by more than seven points and would edge out the Tigers by dint of having obtained a losing bonus point in their defeat at Welford Road.

However, defeat by more than seven points to Perpignan would leave the Ospreys in need of a bonus point win over Leicester in the final match.

Perpignan, in all probability, need a miracle after conceding a crucial bonus point to Leicester in round four, and even two bonus point wins may not be enough to keep their interest in the competition alive.

POOL FOUR: Round Five: Saturday: Ulster Rugby v Harlequins. Sunday: Scarlets v Stade Français Paris. Round Six: Saturday, January 24th: Stade Français Paris v Ulster Rugby; Harlequins v Scarlets.

HARLEQUINS can ensure qualification with a win in Ravenhill on Saturday, and even if they lose Dean Richards’ side can top the pool by beating the Scarlets at the Stoop on Saturday week.

With a view to ERC seeding and next season’s draw, not to mention the lure of an English side at Ravenhill, Matt Williams and Ulster will want to win and ensure as high a finish as possible, while Stade Francais could conceivably still qualify as one of the two best runners-up but probably require two bonus point wins to have any chance.

POOL FIVE: Round Five: Saturday: Toulouse v Glasgow Warriors. Sunday: Newport Gwent Dragons v Bath Rugby.

Round Six: Sunday, January 25th: Bath Rugby v Toulouse; Glasgow Warriors v Newport Gwent Dragons.

THE SUNDAY week winner-takes-all meeting at the Rec in the final match of the pool stages is liable to have several other teams hanging on the outcome as well as deciding whether Bath or Toulouse have a home quarter-final.

Toulouse might have effectively have qualified by then were they to record a bonus point win at home to Glasgow this Saturday, which could take the edge off their game at the Rec, while Bath may need to win both their remaining games to reach the quarter-finals.

POOL SIX: Round Five: Saturday: Rugby Calvisano v Biarritz Olympique. Sunday: Gloucester Rugby v Cardiff Blues.

Round Six: Friday, January 23rd: Cardiff Blues v Rugby Calvisano; Biarritz Olympique v Gloucester Rugby.

WERE THE Blues to win in Kingsholm this Sunday they would be assured of a home quarter-final. In fact, even a bonus point defeat would leave them needing only to beat Calvisano at home to ensure qualification and with it most probably a home quarter-final – with the final also to be held in Cardiff.

Gloucester require two bonus point wins, and beating Cardiff by more than seven points to top the pool, although two wins would most probably earn them a place in the last eight as one of the two best runners-up.

How they stand

Pool One

PWDLFABPts

Munster43018571113

Sale Sharks42029661311

Clermont 4202779308

Montauban4103589126

Pool Two

PWDLFABPts

Leinster430111648315

Wasps43018079012

Castres4103388615

Edinburgh4103567704

Pool Three

PWDLFABPts

Ospreys 430112545315

Leicester 430113075315

Perpignan 4202898919

Benetton Trev40045619100

Pool Four

PWDLFABPts

Harlequins440010570117

Stade Francais42029059 311

Ulster 41127310006

Scarlets401369108 13

Pool Five

PWDLFABPts

Toulouse44009252117

Bath430189773 15

Newport410361 8715

Glasgow4004 8811444

Pool Six

PWDLFABPts

Cardiff Blues440012467 218

Gloucester 430113469 214

Biarritz 410 3746337

Calvisano 40045218500