Trying to work out the peculiarities of ground and distance have been the focus of many minds at Ascot this week and while it will remain the same today, every permutation still points to Swain as the winner of the Hardwicke Stakes.

Dermot Weld runs his Mooresbridge Stakes winner Stage Affair but while this handsome colt's chance cannot be dismissed, his pre-race credentials just don't add up to Swain's.

The Godolphin horse had his finest moment when beating Pilsudski, Singpiel and Helissio over today's course and distance in the 1997 King George, has won two Group One races, acts on soft ground and is ridden by a man at the height of his form.

Yes, he has to give 5lb away and was a beaten favourite in the Coronation Cup behind Silver Patriarch, but presuming Swain gets a reasonable early pace, he looks to have far too much in hand.

Selections: 2.30 - Casino Captive; 3.05 - Swain; 3.45 - Always Alight; 4.20 - Averti (nap); 4.55 - Flanders; 5.30 - Lord Jim.