Swallow can reach summit

Racing : Over the 55-year history of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes an elite bunch of eight Irish-trained…

Racing: Over the 55-year history of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes an elite bunch of eight Irish-trained horses have been successful, but the bookmakers reckon it's odds on about one of today's trio coming out on top. It's hard to argue with them too.

Azamour and Grey Swallow have completely dominated the ante-post betting for this midsummer highlight, which is being run at Newbury due to the continued development work at Ascot. Throw in Aidan O'Brien's dark horse Ace and it's little wonder that Paddy Power are going just 8 to 11 about another Irish winner of the race.

Of course such presumption has a habit of biting back. The Arc winner Bago after all is out of the very top drawer, a Group One winner in every season he has raced.

The sole three-year-old runner is Eswarah, an Oaks winner who has even got her notoriously pragmatic trainer, Michael Jarvis, going all giggly at what she might yet achieve.

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Then there is a supporting cast which, in any other drama, would have lead billing. Gamut, Phoenix Reach, Warrsan and Doyen are all Group One winners.

The latter even looked a potential superstar when winning this race last year. Any one of them is capable of stealing the show but somehow listing them all still only seems to emphasise just how good the Irish challenge is.

Michael Kinane, a four-time King George winner, including on the mighty Montjeu, believes his mount Azamour only has to stay the mile-and-a-half trip to win.

The colt's trainer, John Oxx, who won with Alamshar two years ago, is characteristically less bullish but the very fact Azamour lines up at all gives an indication of what Oxx really thinks. The man just doesn't do idle hunches.

Only a few miles of the Curragh plain separate Azamour from his old rival Grey Swallow but there's likely to be only yards between them today - if that. Four times the pair have clashed, Azamour coming out ahead on three occasions.

Crucially though, Dermot Weld's star was on top in May's Tattersalls Gold Cup. Azamour might have had an unlucky passage but the 10-furlong trip was in his favour, and yet Grey Swallow came out best, with Bago and Ace also behind him.

Grey Swallow hasn't appeared since but an impressive gallop last weekend indicates he could now be at a career peak. An Irish Derby success last year proved a mile and a half on good to firm ground is just what he needs and the Weld camp are making all the right noises.

There is a suggestion that Grey Swallow may not be a great traveller but there was nothing wrong with his Guineas run at Newmarket last year and an over-the-top effort off an interrupted preparation in the Arc hardly proves anything.

The doubt about Azamour is more specific: will he stay? The likelihood is that he will, but that doesn't mean he will be as effective. If he can win a Group One at a mile and a half, to add to those at a mile and 10 furlongs, then he will have truly proven himself an exceptional racehorse.

Of the others, Gamut would like more give in the ground, while it's surely significant that Phoenix Reach has had to globetrot to notch his Group One wins. Bago has a rather large bounce to perform on the back of a poor effort last time, so what odds Ace may be the one to fill out the placings?

Such an Irish clean sweep may be improbable, though not impossible, but for those only interested in the number-one spot then Grey Swallow looks the one.

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor is the racing correspondent of The Irish Times. He also writes the Tipping Point column