Inevitably there has been a lot of speculation about the composition of the Lions squad to tour Australia in June. Attempting to read what the selectors will do has long been a popular past time, but it can also be extremely hazardous: many a player deemed a "certainty" has found himself on the outside looking in, while many deemed to be not in with a chance have been chosen.

All speculation about the composition of the squad will end next week when the playing party is announced. Coach Graham Henry has said the management have settled on the names of the vast majority of the squad, as one would expect at this stage. Thus the two European Cup semi-finals tomorrow will provide the final evidence for those few places still in doubt.

From an Irish perspective, the postponements of three of our matches in the Six Nations Championship has certainly not helped the cause of some contenders. But again, both manager Donal Lenihan and Henry have said performances in the group and quarter-final stages of the Cup, as well as the international matches, have been taken into account. So some good news there for Irish hopefuls. Munster players still on the "brink" can do themselves a lot of good in Lille.

In looking at the Irish candidates, let me say at the outset that I will be surprised if Brian O'Driscoll, Keith Wood and Malcolm O'Kelly are not included. They are, too, all Test candidates. I would expect, too, to see Rob Henderson in the squad, but Denis Hickie's chances may have receded as the championship progressed. None of that quintet will be playing for Munster tomorrow.

But let us look at a few who will be and who must be in the reckoning. Ronan O'Gara deserves to be in the touring party. He is a player of immense talent and has the ability to use his outside backs. There is no doubt that Jonny Wilkinson, of England, will be one of the outhalves, and Neil Jenkins is favoured to make it. If they take three outhalves, then O'Gara should be in the squad. He is a better player than Jenkins at moving a back line. Jenkins is a superb kicker, but so also is Wilkinson and O'Gara is also an accomplished place-kicker.

Rob Howley and Matt Dawson are the front runners at scrumhalf, with Kyron Bracken also well in contention. But I would like to see Peter Stringer make it. He is the type of player who would surely prosper in the Australian conditions. But this tour may have come just too soon for Stringer.

The tour may have come a year too late for Peter Clohessy, but he will surely figure in deliberations. John Hayes looks to have a better chance. Jeremy Davidson has had a fractured season but he was a revelation in South Africa in 1997. But his chances now seem slim.

It is very unfortunate that David Wallace and Kieron Dawson have been injured. But Wallace has more than an outside chance. He has had an outstanding season.

Nor can one forget Eric Miller. Again, an injury curtailed his activity, but his performances in 1997, as well as the conditions likely to obtain in Australia, will help his cause.

Anthony Foley did himself some good last Friday night. But Lawrence Dallaglio and Scott Quinnell both look certain to go.

I think at least six Irishmen will be included and performances in Lille could help to increase that number.

I have had the good fortune to have reported on seven Lions tours, and one thing that I have learned is that suggesting a Test side before a ball is kicked on the tour is not an exercise in which I would attempt to indulge. Some players respond very well to the demands of touring, and touring with a Lions side is very different to touring with a national team.

Preconceived ideas can prove very wide of the mark in relation to Test selection. Let me offer some examples and there are many.

In 1974, no one believed prior to the tour that the Test centre combination would be Dick Milliken and Ian McGeechan. They played in all four Tests. Not even the arrival of Mike Gibson disturbed the partnership. Tony Neary was rated a "certainty" in the back row; he did not play in a Test as Roger Uttley and Fergus Slattery were on the flanks.

In 1993, in New Zealand, Will Carling was a leading candidate for the captaincy, which he did not get, but was rated a certainty for the Test team. He played in just one Test, the first, and that was because Scott Gibbs was injured.

In 1997 four Irishmen were selected in the pack for the first Test. Paul Wallace, who was a late replacement on the tour for Peter Clohessy, played in every Test, as did Davidson. Injury ruled Wood out of the third Test. Illness prevented Miller from playing in the first Test, injury from playing in the third, and he came on as a replacement in the second.

Four Irishmen selected in the pack for the first Test, and a Scot. Now remember the pretour forecasts and bear them in mind as well.