The danger of premature evaluation

THIS was the weekend that football lovers experienced the problems of premature evaluation, a psychological weakness afflicting…

THIS was the weekend that football lovers experienced the problems of premature evaluation, a psychological weakness afflicting those who crown a team as champions before they have actually won the title. Or lost it.

In 1992, United's late jitters let in Leeds, the following year Villa let in United, in 1994 Blackburn caught United and last season United nearly overhauled Blackburn.

But history is ignored. Hence a title run in this season which reads like the plot of a crime thriller. First everyone was convinced that Newcastle had done it, then all the evidence pointed to Manchester United. Now nobody knows what to think except that there are bound to be more twists to come.

The blame for this latest one lies largely with the author of the season's shock result, Dave Merrington, a Geordie born lay preacher with a pulpit zeal who whipped up imperilled Southampton into such a high state of self belief that they beat arguably the best team in the country.

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His tactic was dubious for a man of God, denying United two staples of creation, time and space. But it was the obvious way to succeed.

Such constricting tactics are a prime and understandable piece of the armoury used by sides fighting the foe of relegation and are an irritating test of the true quality of leading teams. On Saturday, United were left with, literally, nowhere to turn.

Liverpool's championship hopes were all but ended by a similar ploy from similar opposition at relegation threatened Coventry over Easter, and Saturday was not the first time United have been troubled by the problem. Only a late Cantona equaliser salvaged a recent point at spirited QPR.

What made Southampton's performance so devastating was that they also got behind the ball in numbers, attacked mob handed, passed with impressive slickness and tucked away their chances. Not even Cantona could bail out United this time.

But Ferguson's team did not help themselves perhaps after an unbeaten run of 18 games they were due a defeat, but the manner of it was naive and lazy. They knew that Southampton would come at them, but were still surprised and overrun.

Pressed constantly possession, they gave the ball away with disheartening regularity to add pressure to an already, shaky defence. It was a fatal combination that ushered in all three Southampton goals.

Beckham's suicidal pass into his own area had almost let in Dodd after just 20 seconds, before the captain Bruce back in the side after injury, committed a petulant and unnecessary foul on Charlton in retaliation for a perceived offence seconds earlier. It proved a costly piece of in discipline.

Le Tissier's free kick found Monkou unchallenged five yards out, Schmeichel saved the header, but the impressive Dutch defender was first to pounce on the rebound.

Had Butt not wasted an inviting chance two minutes earlier, the momentum of the match might have been different. But now it was fully with Southampton.

Dodd was allowed a free shot from which he should have scored and Le Tissier hit the post before Southampton's second goal arrived thanks to more sloppy play by United. This time Giggs lost the ball to Magilton, he fed Neilson whose quick cross to the near post was swept in first time by Shipperly while Bruce and Neville watched him do it.

It was a sweet moment for Shipperley, who had a controversial goal disallowed in a recent FA Cup tie at Old Trafford, where Southampton's excellent performance had perhaps first shown them that United could be beaten.

Up until this point of Saturday's game, United's sharpest attacks had been aimed at each other as they fought to apportion blame for the mess. But there was only one culprit for Southampton's third goal the normally impeccable Schmeichel, who overstretched himself coming for Shipperly's cross and palmed the ball down to Le Tissier.

Any other player might have panicked at finding the big Dane at his feet, but the skills of Southampton's mercurial genius are returning after his bout of England blues, and his nonchalant flick over the prostrate goalkeeper was followed by an equally calm shot inside the far post.

Southampton are still in relegation danger, though three more performances like this would easily see them safe, starting, United hope, at Newcastle on Wednesday. United play Leeds the same night and everybody beats them. Don't they?