IN a Jameson Irish Grand National that looks to lack overall quality, it should pay to follow the one horse whose quality is assured. Top weight of 12st indicates that The Grey Monk has already achieved enough to make him comfortably the best horse in this race, but such is his potential, he may yet end up outclassing today's opposition at Fairyhouse despite that burden.
Withdrawn from the Cheltenham Gold Cup because of the fast ground, trainer Gordon Richards was yesterday anxiously awaiting reports from the Co Meath track. While there was no rain about, the ground has not dried out as much as the Cumbrian trainer had feared.
"As long as it's not something like good to firm, then the horse should be fine," Richards said before indicating that it's only those slight ground concerns that prevent him showing real confidence going into today's £100,000 race.
"The furthest he has gone before is the three-and-a-quarter-miles of the Hennessy at Newbury where he was beaten, but I think he'll get the trip at Fairyhouse fine. He's the class horse of the race and, as long as they don't cut each others throats early on, we have to be very hopeful," he added.
The early pace will be furious as the 20 runners jostle for position early on. One horse that will try to avoid that jockeying is the likely favourite, Papillon. Charlie Swan will drop out the Ted Walsh-trained novice and bid to make a decisive move in the last mile of the race. But Papillon hardly now represents value to punters.
Only four runs over fences is hardly the usual sort of credential for a National winner, and when the heat of the race is stoked up in that last mile, Papillon may just find it too competitive.
In contrast, experience will be a plus factor for most of the strong British team. Mudahim may have flopped at Cheltenham but before that had bounced back to his best by winning the Racing Post Chase at Kempton. Jenny Pitman's former top hurdler had Percy Smollett well behind him on that occasion and on today's good ground should confirm that form.
Percy Smollett's stablemate, St Mellion Fairway, is another who would prefer softer-ground than he is likely to get and those looking for an each-way outsider could do worse by checking out Noel Meade's The Latvian Lark, a course winner, with the benefit of having Conor O'Dwyer on his back.
However, The Grey Monk is worth backing to prove that class can ultimately win out. It was a severe disappointment to Richards and jockey Tony Dobbin that the grey could not run in the Gold Cup and the form of his warm-up victory at Haydock hints strongly that the big horse's best is still ahead of him.
Over an inadequate two-and-a-half-mile trip, The Grey Monk still gave weight and a beating to a field that included Terao, who went on to win the Mildmay of Flete at the Cheltenham festival, and the subsequent Grand Annual winner, Uncle Ernie.
Today's stamina test is going to be far more to his liking, and with the opposition hardly outstanding, The Grey Monk can defy his weight and become only the fifth British-trained winner of this race since it was first run in 1870.
The rest of the card is highlighted by the Jameson Gold Cup, which gives Finnegan's Hollow what looks an ideal opportunity to prove how unlucky he was at Cheltenham. At the third last, flight of the Supreme Novices Hurdle, nothing was going easier than Charlie Swan's mount but he tripped up, allowing Shadow Leader to go on for a facile success. Opinion is divided as to whether Finnegan's Hollow would have won had he stood up but while he may not be a type to find much off the bridle, he should still be good enough to beat today's opposition. Humbel was pulled up in that Cheltenham contest, Grey Guy doesn't look good enough, so Sentosa Star may be the one to chase Finnegan's Hollow home.
Stylish Allure is another to have run at Cheltenham, managing only to finish in 15th place behind Commanche Court in the Triumph Hurdle. In the circumstances, though, it is worth forgiving him that display and he can take the opener.
Dermot Weld's horse had only made his hurdling debut 11 days, previously when beating Fishin Joella and Grey Guy at Leopardstown, and with the hustle and bustle of the Triumph sure to have toughened him up, Stylish Allure can get back to winning ways at the expense of Dovaly.
Gravity Gate disappointed when third to Clifdon Fog at Leopardstown, but with Richard Dunwoody taking the mount in the Dunshaughlin Handicap Hurdle, he will probably be covered up until the straight, when his finishing kick can make him too tough a nut to crack for Straldi.
Amberleigh House was touted as Michael Hourigan's horse for the Cheltenham bumper, and while he didn't make that contest, he is clearly a horse of some ability and is worth keeping an eye on in the last.
The Salt and Properties Beginners Chase and the Nuzum Handicap Chase look too tricky to bet in with confidence, but Prate Box's experience should count for something in the handicap, while No Tag will like the ground in the novice event.
