EXPECT a draw. For exactly two months, Cesare Maldini has been telling a little white lie. Since his appointment as Italian coach in succession to the controversial Arrigo Sacchi in mid December, Maldini has been telling us that tomorrow night's World Cup qualifier against England at Wembley is "an important, but not a decisive game".

In theory, Maldini is right. There is still a lot of football to play between now and the end of the qualifying round next November. In the meantime, Poland and Georgia may complicate all the Group Two calculations. Defeat against England will not necessarily lead to Italy's elimination the France 98 World Cup finals, especially since the sides must meet in the return leg next autumn.

All that is well and good and entirely logical, but it don't tell the whole truth. The reality is that, arithmetic calculations notwithstanding, the result tomorrow night matters desperately to Maldini.

This is not just another World Cup qualifier it is a contest against a footballing "auld enemy", which furthermore comes when Italy are reshaping under a new coach in the wake of last summer's painful and premature exit from Euro 96.

It comes when the traditionally delicate Anglo Italian balance of footballing power has been turned upside down by a summer and autumn which saw some of the greatest contemporary Italian talents, players like Gianfranco Zola and Roberto Di Matteo, wend their way to England, reversing the trend of the last 15 years of Italian market dominance.

If this were just any old game, why would the Italian Consumers' Association be up in arms about the fact that the game will be broadcast live in Italy by a private network, Telemontecarlo, rather than state broadcaster RAI? Only 80 per cent of Italy receives the Telemontecarlo signal.

If this were just another game, would a row about its television coverage prompt parliamentary questions in Rome's Chamber of Deputies? Why have Italian journalists been zooming in on it with a week-long countdown: "-7, -6, -5," etc to the "Big Night"?

No this one is for real. Defeat for Italy may indeed prove decisive it may so complicate the Maldini rebuilding process that Italy simply do not recover in time to qualify for France.

For all those reasons, expect a draw at Wembley. Italy cannot afford to lose. Inter Milan's English coach Roy Hodgson, someone obviously familiar with both sides and with both footballing cultures, agrees a draw has to be the likely outcome:

"As in any game between two big sides, a draw is the most probable result. Neither side will want to take too many risks.

"Don't believe either coach when they start talking about attacking soccer. They're lying. In the end, they'll be more worried about losing."

Maldini's probable side (see below) speaks for itself with regard to defensive intention. Real Madrid new boy Christian Panucci steps; into the sweeper role behind a four man defence of Ciro Ferrara and Fabio Cannavaro (or Alessandro Costacurta) in the centre with Angelo Di Livio and Paolo "The Son" Maldini at full back.

In midfield, Roberto Di Matteo, Demetrio Albertini and Dino Baggio form a tough, solid trio likely to concern themselves with defensive as much as offensive work.

Up front, of course, Maldini will hope that the in form Zola can work the odd miracle, while Pierluigi Casiraghi has had plenty of experience of "life as a lone target man".

The only, mild surprise in Maldini's selection is the decision to ask Panucci rather than the more experienced Ferrara to play in the sweeper role. Even this choice, however, comes complete with a rationale based on historical precedent, as Maldini himself explained yesterday:

"For me, this is not really and experiment, since I know Panucci - very well, probably better than any one since he played for me in the Under 21 side for four seasons, sometimes playing as sweeper. He can do a good job in this position.

Final thought on the game comes from Roy Hodgson. You can argue all you like about the likely result, but one thing is certain, and that is that this will be a big occasion, a big night for football."