European Cup: It's a simple equation. Ulster must win tomorrow against Biarritz at Ravenhill, and claim a bonus point, if they are to continue clinging on to their Heineken European Cup aspirations.
In practical terms, nothing else will suffice and even if they accomplish that goal the province will still be reliant on other results to facilitate their play-off quest.
Winning the match in question would constitute a fine achievement without imposing the rider of a bonus point. To further compound the assignment is that Ulster's form has been patchy of late, losing three matches in all competitions before squeaking home against the Glasgow Warriors last weekend.
It's in marked contrast to their pre-Christmas pedigree, producing a succession of accomplished performances. Confidence has been a little bit eroded, a fact acknowledged by right wing Tommy Bowe.
"After the last three weeks it was shown out there (at Ravenhill on Saturday) the knock-on effect of not winning. Three weeks ago if we had have been playing Glasgow everyone would have been very confident and we probably would have gone out and played differently to the way we did.
"After the last few weeks we tried to say that it didn't have much of an effect on us but we were just really happy to come away with the win. It should stand us in good stead. In some respects we have nothing to lose on Friday and yet everything is at stake at the same time."
Bowe explains that, while expectation outside the camp might be a little muted given Ulster's recent form, the players know that they have so much more to offer both individually and collectively. It's about tapping those resources and that will quickly define their season.
Subdued in recent games and largely starved of possession, Bowe's performance last Saturday offered a truer reflection of his ability. He was sharp both in mind and body. There was little hesitation when he claimed possession and he went looking for work - all traits of a top quality Test player. He knows that there is an onus on him to be proactive rather than sitting back and waiting for ball to come his way.
"I'm trying not to get frustrated, trying to get my hands on the ball, which is the main thing for me. It's about getting on the ball first and foremost. Then you can start to fine tune, readjusting your lines of running by a few inches to try and get away, make breaks, get through gaps.
"At the minute I'm relatively happy. I'm getting involved but at the same time not getting those breaks that I really want to, in trying to create for others or finish off good work. There are aspects that you are always going to work on like the ability to work your hands free (in the tackle) and make things happen for others.
"I've been working on several aspects of my game. Whenever Ulster are in full flow, we like to play an expansive game, throw the ball about and get those offloads in. We haven't been playing the rugby to do that. Everyone needs to offer a little bit more. (For me) It's as much about taking chances, especially when they are scarce."
It's not that Ulster are playing very badly, it is more a case of rediscovering that edge to their play. It's about good decision-making and ruthless execution. The arrival of Biarritz is in itself going to galvanise the home side as much from the awareness that substandard fare will threaten their proud home record at Ravenhill.
Coach Mark McCall won't have to spell it out for his players. Bowe admitted: "They're a world-class side. No need (to try and inject) any artificial enthusiasm for a tie like this. Everyone is up for it. As a player you look forward to these occasions. It's a test as an individual, a test as a team.
"We showed over in Biarritz that we can compete against them. They won't underestimate us so we'll get nothing easy. Over there in the first 15 minutes they probably thought 'happy days' but we came back into the game and showed what we could do. They'll come over here expecting more than they got in France. Hopefully we won't disappoint them."
This game is a benchmark for Ulster's season, while for Bowe the by-product of a high-profile display will be a reminder to Ireland coach Eddie O'Sullivan as the Six Nations looms. In fairness to the young wing he's more preoccupied by the collective rather than dwelling on personal benefits.