Australia v Ireland: Ireland have a real chance to impress an Australian public unaware of their quality, writes rugby analyst Matt Williams

The first thing I'd like to say is this is undoubtedly a game Ireland can win. Even though Ireland haven't beaten Australia in Australia since the great 1979 team managed to do so, they beat Australia at Lansdowne Road in 2002 and performed well against the Wallabies in the last World Cup.

This is a now a more experienced Ireland team. They were genuinely disappointed they didn't beat the All Blacks on either of the last two Saturdays, and I applaud that. This Ireland team are shrugging off the heroic-failure syndrome, and rightly so.

I do believe they should have beaten the All Blacks in the first Test, and they blew it. They fought manfully with the All Blacks in the second Test and had the winning of that game, but again individual errors - Ronan O'Gara's missed tackle, for instance - cost them.

They are clearly targeting this game as a winnable one. By his selection, Eddie O'Sullivan has announced that. He has not used this tour in any way for development, nor should he. These are the games the IRFU would expect a victory from. After winning the Heineken European Cup, getting another team to the semi-finals, a 1-2-3 in the Celtic League, and the Triple Crown, the IRFU would want a win away to one of the Southern Hemisphere big three as part of their agenda.

To achieve that, there are a few imperatives, in particular targeting the Australian frontrow. Guy Shepherdson has been picked for his debut at tighthead. Last weekend he played against my club side, West Harbour, and was ordinary. When they told me afterwards he was being called into the Wallaby squad, and then when they told me Rodney Blake was injured and Shepherdson would be starting against Ireland, I was aghast. I don't know if the Irish frontrow are good enough to exploit it but, in terms of scrummaging, this is a poor Australian frontrow.

Therefore I think the key to this game may well be the lineout. Ireland, in the first Test in Hamilton, disrupted the All Blacks' ball superbly, and Ireland's defensive lineout is now probably the best in the world. It has taken over from the England of Clive Woodward's regime.

If Ireland can disrupt the Australian lineout they can frustrate that Wallabies back line. Here, Stephen Larkham is the key. Remember, he wasn't around for much of last year, and that cost Eddie Jones his job. But he's back and if they get a lot of ball they will do considerable damage. That is why the Irish defensive lineout needs to be excellent.

The Wallabies will have looked at the New Zealand games and will target the Ronan O'Gara channel, with Lote Tuqiri, Mark Gerard and Chris Latham coming down that channel. We saw a little of that last week against England, and under Scott Johnson the Wallabies' attacking strategy is a lot smarter.

Before, under Jones, they played out of a playbook. Now Australia are playing a lot smarter tactically. Last week they ran at Andy Goode, drawing the fullback Iain Balshaw in centrally as cover and then kicked wide for Gerard's try. They will target Rog with big runners, and if he misses tackles Australia will win.

As an aside, I'm delighted to see Jeremy Staunton in the squad. Talentwise, he's one of the best players I've ever come across. I wanted him to come to Leinster in 2001, but he was made to stay with Munster and then moved to England, which put back his career for a number of years.

I don't believe the Australian coaches will underestimate Ireland, but I do believe the Australian public will and possibly the players will subconsciously, because European rugby is not watched or known out here. Brian O'Driscoll could walk down the street in Sydney and not be recognised.

European rugby is not shown on TV over here, not even the Six Nations, never mind the European Cup. The Six Nations is not shown on cable or free-to-air television in Australia. The only way to see Six Nations games is to go to an Irish pub.

In a rugby context, we live in a bubble, because rugby is such a mixed sport. David Knox recently was reported as saying O'Driscoll, Paul O'Connell and Shane Horgan are world-class players, among the very best in their positions, but that's because he's been over there. Most Australians would say Shane Who? And that lack of informed knowledge could hurt Australia.

Girvan Dempsey deserves his opportunity. Nothing against Geordan Murphy, he's just out of form, but he will be back. Andrew Trimble is going to be a wonderful player with a long career, but he has made some errors and I'd definitely have Denis Hickie in. That would give Ireland their best side. If George Smith is making hay I'd waste no time in bringing Keith Gleeson in. Gleeson would match him.

If they get away to a good start Australia's confidence will soar and it could be a difficult 80 minutes for Ireland, but if they don't they could start to doubt themselves. Another Southern Hemisphere referee - New Zealand's Kelvin Deaker - is a negative for Ireland, because the breakdown is refereed differently in the Southern Hemisphere.

As far as Ireland are concerned, they must attack Australia, keep faith and keep running at this Australian side. That was a fourth-rate English XV the Wallabies played, and Ireland would have beaten them by the same scores if not more.

I'm not convinced about this Australian side. This is a massive opportunity for Ireland. If they don't win, it will be another bitter disappointment, but they should win.

(In an interview with Gerry Thornley)