Tipperary have been relatively poor this season but they will have learned from their quarter-final game and should have enough in the tank to edge out Waterford

AFTER KILKENNY’S performance last week it was natural to wonder what was the point of the second semi-final but as the days have gone by and with the awful news of Henry Shefflin’s injury, the anticipation has increased.

We know the level Waterford are at because we’ve seen it consistently this year. They’re working very hard as a team and closing down tightly on opponents. They’re not converting the amount of possession they’re winning onto the scoreboard and their striking capacity is limited but they have John Mullane, who has been on fire this year, in brilliant form and Eoin Kelly – although he’s hitting more from frees than play.

Tipperary are harder to assess. They’ve been relatively poor all year and the expectations heading into this season still haven’t been matched. There were some hints of the potential in the last five minutes against Galway when they showed a lot of know-how and hurling to claw their way out of a mess but the way they got themselves into it was a confirmation of what’s been going on all year.

When it comes down to looking at opponents for Kilkenny, Tipp’s claims are based on the potential of last September and not their form whereas with Waterford it’s the other way around because their form is steady although they haven’t shown the potential to stretch the champions.

Having said that, Waterford were as good a team as there was in the league. They showed a lot of structure and awareness of what they were about and that was again obvious in the Munster final against Cork.

There is a criticism of them that they’re not as cavalier as they used to be but in fairness they’ve made quite a few changes in personnel and, thanks partly to Davy Fitzgerald, they’ve become harder to beat.

That’s also partly down to a really solid defence. Clinton Hennessy is a steady goalkeeper; they’ve two excellent corner backs with Noel Connors having an outstanding season and Brick Walsh has developed into the best centre back around while beside him Tony Browne continues to defy the years.

Another important element in the team is the work rate around the middle and especially the ball-winning and graft of Kevin Moran, transformed from a vulnerable wing back, and Stephen Molumphy, back to his best form this year.

Although the Munster final was so closely contested I think Waterford were distinctly better than Cork and held back by a limited- looking scoring threat as well as that Cork surge midway through the second half of the drawn game. But, as I’ve said, the Munster champions have maintained that level of performance.

Tipperary haven’t and I’d be worried from their point of view about how easy it is to flick a switch in August that you weren’t able to flick in May even allowing for their game-on-game improvement in Croke Park last year. The league form was patchy apart from the win against Kilkenny, but Kilkenny have shown since that their displays back then bear no relation to their championship form.

Overshadowing Tipp’s season is the hammering that Cork gave them at the start of the championship, an ominous precedent when you consider the Rebels’ fate last week. But Tipperary sleepwalked into that and it’s now obvious that Cork targeted that match at home as their big statement for the year.

Either way Tipperary were probably too bad to be true in Páirc Uí­ Chaoimh that day and although much has changed since then the progress back to this level was fairly pedestrian against Wexford and Offaly. Then in the Galway quarter-final they showed some of the same tendencies as they had against Cork – leaking goals through elementary mistakes and watching the opposition centre back, Tony Óg Regan, lording it.

On the credit side, there were also key improvements. Gearóid Ryan and Patrick Maher developed the ball-winning capacity of the half forwards and Ryan is also scoring. Brendan Maher is in a serious vein of form at midfield (although there are rumours that he was suffering from a viral illness earlier in the week).

There were also signs of character when they had to dig out the win and the hope and expectation will be that they can build on that. Since then the under-21s have had a morale-boosting win in the Munster final, having to turn around an early deficit. So the mood has picked up.

Waterford will be a good barometer of where Tipp are. That combination of physical strength and patterned play will be difficult to beat unless there has been an improvement since the quarter-final.

The areas of concern are the concession of bad goals and also the poor quality of ball from half-back into the forwards. Accurate delivery was a crucial aspect of their most productive play last year and brought out of Larry Corbett and Eoin Kelly their best form in years. Neither Declan Fanning nor Conor O’Mahony are playing up to that level and Pádraic Maher, who’s really a central defender, doesn’t deliver as well from wing back as Brendan Maher did last year.

Almost symbolically – because the position has been a headache for a while apart from the brief flare of Séamus Callanan – centre forward will be vital for Tipp tomorrow because of the need to rein in Brick Walsh’s influence. To date they have had no game plan as structured as Waterford’s containing pattern and work rate. Neither have their best individuals been playing as well as Waterford’s. If you were picking a composite team based on 2010 to date, Mullane would be the first name down for the forwards and Brick Walsh the first name down in defence – and probably Connors the next.

Can Tipp rediscover their A game? What is their A game? The All-Ireland last year, which sticks out more than a bit in the general run of performances, was played in circumstances that suited them – and would again if they reached this year’s final.

Tomorrow’s different.

Expectations were probably too high this year for a young and inexperienced team and they may have overestimated themselves after all the rave reviews that followed last year’s final. It’s classic second-season syndrome.

Tipp are, however, less dependent on individuals than Waterford. The two crucial issues will be disrupting Waterford’s half backs and the extent to which Michael Cahill or Paul Curran can restrict Mullane. If these boxes can be ticked, their greater spread of scoring potential can be the difference even allowing for the opposition’s ball-winning capability.

I can’t understand how Tipperary are such raging favourites but I do think they will have learned from the quarter-final and can step up their game. That I believe will be enough for a narrow win – but no more.