IT'S only two years since Tipperary were deemed unlucky to lose a Munster final by eight points. They looked like a team with some prospects. The trouble is that their horizons were never really going to extend as far as a provincial title, so losing finals honourably was the limit of realistic ambition.

Even such modest aspirations are dependent on how they are treated by the draw. Tomorrow's Bank of Ireland Munster football championship meeting with Kerry at Clonmel is a reminder of such hard reality.

Last year when the same teams met in the semi final Tipperary could be said to have been unlucky but when a team loses by 17 points, the part played by luck becomes a little irrelevant.

Luck and its absence is a recurring theme for Seamus McCarthy who may be taking charge of the Tipperary footballers for the last time tomorrow. He has been transferred from Thurles to the Kinsale branch of the Bank of Ireland. Consequently his long association with football in the county, stretching as far back as 1984 when he brought the minors to an All Ireland final, is concluding.

He can point to a long list, of aggravations and disappointments in recent times. For such an affable and diplomatic individual, he attracts controversy like a magnet. In 1994, he was blamed in some quarters for the injury sustained by John Leahy in a football match which left him unable to line out for the hurlers who subsequently lost to Clare.

The same year one of his key players, Derry Foley, became the subject of a High Court injunction to lift a suspension threatening to prevent his playing in the Munster final. Although not named in the team, Foley came on as a substitute to make a substantial contribution.

Only last summer, in an ironic twist of fate, full forward Anthony Crosse received a terrible injury playing for the hurlers against Limerick when an accident broke his cheekbone badly and severely damaged his eye to the extent that he has not played for Tipperary since.

While these summers wound by, each with their own little quota of woe, Tipperary's winter performances in the League were depressingly unproductive. Again there were external factors. The late running of the county championship and the comparative success of clubs from the county in Munster meant that Tipperary were frequently fielding under strength and struggling in the League by Christmas.

Then when a breakthrough, of sorts was made, with the winning of last year's All Ireland B matters over which Tipperary had no control exercised an unhelpful influence. The GAA experimented with staging the B competition during the summer and an event that had established a reasonable profile for itself in October and November, was just swallowed up by the competing publicity claims of senior championship coverage.

Unlike Carlow and Clare and Leitrim who had all got great mileage out of similar achievement, Tipperary's exploits received hardly any attention.

When Kerry scored 7-12 against them in last year's championship, there was genuine extenuation. Between the 11th and 16th minute, Kerry scored five of their goals but during that frantic phase of play, Tipperary had their chances but on penetrating the Kerry defence, found reserve goalkeeper Peter O'Brien in unbeatable form.

Nonetheless Tipperary dominated play for substantial periods and at one stage - after conceding the five goals - had reduced the deficit to four points and kept Kerry scoreless for 35 minutes.

There has also been some encouragement at under age level with a Munster minor title last year a welcome supplement to the 1984 success. "We've lived off that team for years," says McCarthy.

As well as emphasising the positive aspects of last year, McCarthy has reorganised the defence. Tom Macken returns to centre back from the full back line. McCarthy points out that when Macken anchors the defence, they don't concede goals.

Midfield has always been competitive with the industrious virtues of Brian Burke complementing Foley's flamboyance. The attack has promise but is liable to be erratic. Crosse is badly missed and if Mark Sheehan is kept out by injury, heavier burdens will fall on Peter Lambert, Criostoir McGrath and the hurlers' goalkeeper Brendan Cummins.

For all that, Kerry have to be fancied. They are training well and morale is high with confidence in the ability to win Munster abounding. Even in the absence of Seamus Moynihan - reports of whose hamstring injury are becoming a bit alarming for people in the county - Kerry can win enough possession around the centre, scavenging for ball between the half lines.

With Maurice Fitzgerald back in competitive action, and Dara O Cinneide in such compelling scoring form, there looks to be plenty in hand for Kerry up front. Tipperary will be hoping for better luck than usual but on its own, it won't close the gap.