Group D Slovakia v Wales:John Toshack still believes Wales can finish a creditable third in their qualifying group.

The Wales boss knows defeat to Slovakia this evening, and a Czech win over Ireland in Prague, will mathematically end Welsh hopes of qualifying for next summer's finals in Austria and Switzerland.

But Toshack brushed aside the criticism which has followed an insipid defeat by Germany on Saturday in Cardiff with an insistence that his policies and methods will bear fruit in the long run.

Toshack will have captain Craig Bellamy back in the side, now clear of his family problems last week, and could bring in Real Sociedad midfielder David Vaughan. The Wales manager has also had to contend with what is now becoming a regular tirade of criticism from the axed Robbie Savage in the wake of the Germany defeat.

He said: "It is not something that concerns me what people think about how we are progressing." But he remains confident that his long-term youth policy will work in the end.

"Anything other than the Germans and the Czechs qualifying now would be a surprise. When the draw was made they were the teams expected to go through.

"We still think we can finish third. We now have three away games, here, Cyprus and San Marino, and we have to look for nine points. Starting here.

"From our position third spot would be a tremendous achievement, but we have to aim at that.

"I don't think it is beyond us, anything else probably is. We must get nine points from our next three before we finish with tough ones against the Irish and Germans."

Toshack believes his young side can still raise their game in Trnava in a Group D game and gain revenge for the 5-1 defeat to Slovakia last season.

"I was told when we got here by the Slovakians that there is no motivation for us now. That was a silly thing to say to us, we aim to win this one. Wales teams in the past have not won too many games away from home against teams seeded above us, be they squads of players with far greater ability, experience and standard than this one. So that too is a big motivation for these young lads."

Toshack also dismissed speculation that Jason Koumas' calf injury was a convenient way to excuse the Wigan midfielder from this trip after his poor showing against the Germans.

"Obviously I'm disappointed that Jason Koumas is not here. Likewise to lose Craig Bellamy for the Germany game, the pair are important players for us.

"Jason ended training last Wednesday with a calf complaint, he trained a bit after that and we felt he was fit enough for the Germany game. It did not affect him during the game but it certainly did the following day and he could not train then.

"We could not even think about him playing out here, and it might be touch and go for him on Saturday for Wigan. Jason isn't fit. He was disappointed with his own performance, sure, but he could not play in this one.

Toshack also took some of the blame for the squad's defeatist attitude after Bellamy's withdrawal at the weekend.

"Craig's problems caught us on the hop a little," he added. "Maybe I could have been more decisive, you always look at yourself first, had it happened earlier in the week I could have done something about it. As the leader of the group maybe I could have reacted in a more positive way.

"But these things are sent to test you. You have to look at yourself, maybe I transmitted too much concern to the players 24 hours before the game, I could not brush aside what happened as professionally as I should have done. Now we've got to have a better performance here, and I think we will."