RUGBY:THE SEASON is set to run and run. After securing three of the eight quarter-finalists for the first time ever, there was little chance of the Irish teams avoiding each other at some stage. But after yesterday's semi-final draw, at least an all-Irish quarter-final between Munster and Ulster guarantees one team in the semi-finals, and with Leinster in the other half of the draw, there remains the possibility of an all-Irish final at Twickenham on May 19th.
Admittedly, there is a little bit of rugby to be played before we can contemplate such a dizzying prospect, but after such a dramatically unpredictable and fluctuating weekend, the road map to the final is now clear. The winners of the Munster-Ulster tie at Thomond Park on Easter weekend will have the carrot of home country advantage against the winners of the Edinburgh-Toulouse quarter-final, while Leinster’s reward should they beat Cardiff Blues – the holders have already confirmed the tie will take place in the Aviva Stadium – will be to face either Saracens or Clermont Auvergne, most probably in either Wembley, where they had a narrow pool win over Sarries last season, or St Etienne.
Suddenly Munster’s supporters, so muted after last weekend’s home win over Castres which secured qualification, will believe that all roads have opened up for their team to reach the final in Twickenham after their stunning 51-36 win over Northampton earned them a top seeding and yesterday’s semi-final draw offered them the prospect of a fourth ‘home’ semi-final, after six semi-finals on the road. So it was that they were the main movers of the weekend with the bookmakers, jumping from 8 to 1 fifth favourites to 7 to 2 second favourites, behind Leinster at 2 to 1.
But above all, the prospect of a Munster-Ulster tie two weeks after the conclusion of Ireland’s Six Nations campaign at Twickenham is particularly mouth-watering, with Ulster’s performance away to Clermont last Saturday comparing more than favourably with Munster’s and Leinster’s defeats by seven, six and seven points there in recent times.
It also backed up their extraordinary destruction of Leicester the week before and ensures they will travel to Limerick with more belief than they could have at any point since they won the trophy in 1999.
“They have been excellent,” admitted Paul O’Connell after Munster’s win over Northampton. “They were outstanding last week against Leicester – I obviously haven’t seen the game today – but they have a lot of quality players and a lot of players showing really good form.
“That’s the big thing for them – you look at Trimble, Ferris and Best last week, I thought they were outstanding and you add their South African brigade and Afoa to that as well and they have a lot of real form players playing really well. So if it is going to be Ulster it is going to be a really tough game.”
Tony McGahan, who has presided over a remarkable re-birth in Munster’s European fortunes this season, added: “I really can’t comment on all their games, the only game I’ve really seen was the game against Leicester and I thought they were absolutely sensational. I thought it was one of the best performances we’ve seen in the campaign to date.”
In keeping with an extraordinary weekend, virtually the entire quarter-final line-up was in the mix until the dramatic last few seconds of overtime in Cardiff where the Blues were pressing for the fourth try which would have earned them a home quarter-final against Toulouse.
That would also have meant Leinster hosting Edinburgh but in doing so, the Blues very nearly conceded a breakaway try which would have knocked them out and let Biarritz slip into the last eight (which would have meant they would have faced Munster, with Leinster hosting Ulster). But ultimately Cardiff had to settle for a 36-30 win which sends them to a quarter-final in Dublin.
Instead, a 78th-minute bonus- point try for Edinburgh in their win over London Irish earned them top place in Pool Two and the first ever quarter-final in Scotland. They will host Toulouse, themselves only still in the tournament courtesy of Connacht’s win over Harlequins on Friday night.
“As events unfolded across Europe over the last few days it was difficult to second guess who we would be playing, but now we know that we’re going to be facing Cardiff Blues in the Aviva Stadium and we know that we’re going to be in for a real battle,” said Leinster boss Joe Schmidt.
“Cardiff are a hugely impressive side; well coached with a physical set of forwards up front and a lot of skill and pace out wide and they have been well served by a number of All Blacks in their ranks who I would personally know well. Given our familiarity in the Pro 12, we will know to expect a tough game on Easter weekend, but that’s what knockout rugby is all about.”
Although Schmidt was not inclined to look beyond the quarter-finals, he’d assuredly have smiled ruefully when the semi-final pairings not only sent Leinster on the road, but potentially against the club, Clermont Auvergne, where he served as backs coach under Vern Cotter for three years before joining Leinster and leading them to the Heineken Cup last season. Their bonus point 20-13 defeat in Clermont remains Leinster’s only loss in 15 Cup ties under Schmidt.
“If we do manage to win this game that means that we’ll maybe travel to either Wembley Stadium or St Etienne and to be honest if we do get to that stage then we’ll be delighted. But we’re not looking any further past the quarter-final,” he said.
With all bar Italy having a presence in the last eight, this is a somewhat fresh looking quarter-final line-up, featuring as it does only four former winners – all three Irish sides and Toulouse.
For the first time ever Ireland have the most representatives in the last eight, with the RaboDirect Pro 12 providing five of the last eight to two from the Top 14 and one from the Premiership.
HEINEKEN CUP QUARTER-FINAL DRAW
MUNSTER v ULSTER
LEINSTER v CARDIFF BLUES
EDINBURGH v TOULOUSE
SARACENS v CLERMONT
Ties to be played April 6th-8th.
SEMI-FINAL DRAW
SARACENS/CLERMONT v LEINSTER/CARDIFF BLUES
MUNSTER/ULSTER v EDINBURGH/TOULOUSE
Ties to be played April 27th-29th.
