HERE WE go again, abacus and calculators at the ready. If it’s the penultimate weekend in January and the permutations are fiendishly difficult and endless, it must be Heineken Cup round six.
Thus far, only two of the 20 competing sides have qualified for the quarter-finals in April, with the remaining six places, plus the three Amlin Challenge Cup places, all to be claimed this weekend.
Mathematically, a host of teams is still in contention but there are only seven other sides competing for those six remaining quarter-final slots.
There's also, of course, the small matter of which teams secure home advantage in the quarter-final line-up. Both Leinster and Munster (rather more trickily) still need wins tomorrow to ensure home quarter-finals whereas Ulster's position is altogether more complicated.
They will take an acute interest in events at the Sportsground and Kingsholm.
Victories for either Connacht over Harlequins or Gloucester against Toulouse will ensure Ulster progress as one of the two best-placed runners-up at least. But were both 'Quins and Toulouse to win, Ulster will need something from their trek to Stade Marcel Michelin to reach the last eight.
Otherwise they'll be hoping for an unlikely favour from either Racing Metro or London Irish (both out of contention) away to Cardiff and Edinburgh on Sunday, when the expectation must be that both home teams will win and thereby advance.
Harlequins will also be mindful that a bonus-point win tonight in Galway would put them on 21 points and, if finishing behind Toulouse, thus set Ulster a stiffer, more complicated target. An Ulster win, though, would end all the permutations at a stroke and put them into the last eight.
TOULOUSE and Harlequins go into their away games needing wins to progress.
A victory for Toulouse in Kingsholm would ensure they qualify as pool winners regardless of events in Galway, whereupon home victories for Northampton and Clermont over Irish opposition would ensure them of a home quarter-final.
A win with a bonus point would virtually seal the deal.
Harlequins need a win at the Sportsground and Gloucester to deny Toulouse victory to ensure they win the group. But even with Toulouse winning, ’Quins know that a win would earn them one of the two best runners-up slots provided Ulster come away empty-handed from Clermont while a win with a bonus point would leave Ulster requiring at least two points in the Auvergne to edge Conor O’Shea’s men out.
REMAINING FIXTURES
Tomorrow: Northampton v Munster, 6.0pm; Castres v Scarlets, 6.0pm.
MUNSTER have secured a quarter-final place and a bonus point could be enough to earn a Thomond Park tie, although that would need at least two of the other pool leaders to lose.
Indeed, despite being the only team with a 100 per cent record, Munster will almost certainly require a win at a packed Stadium MK against Northampton.
Defeat, even with a bonus point, could still see them overtaken by all other five pool winners over the weekend, all the more so as they have comfortably the lowest try tally of the prospective group winners. In that scenario they could face an away tie against, say, Cardiff or Toulouse.
Northampton need a win to ensure they advance to the Amlin Challenge Cup semi-finals, or else they could lose out on that consolation prize to the Scarlets.
REMAINING FIXTURES
Sunday: Treviso v Saracens, 1.0pm; Biarritz v Ospreys, 1.0pm.
SARACENS need only a point from their trek to Treviso on Sunday to win the group and thus ensure they advance to the last eight, while a win (all the more so with a bonus point) would enhance their prospects of a home tie.
They will also have the advantage of knowing the final standings in four of the other pools from tea-time the previous evening, so will have a good idea as to what’s required of them come the 1pm kick-off.
Biarritz host the Ospreys in what amounts to a shoot-out for a place in the Amlin Challenge Cup quarter-finals.
REMAINING FIXTURES
Sunday: Cardiff v Racing, 3.15pm; Edinburgh v London Irish, 3.15pm.
IF Cardiff match Edinburgh’s result on Friday night then they will progress as group winners, and as they’re at home to a Racing team out of contention who host Stade Francais the following week in a meeting between sixth and fifth, the expectation must be that they will.
Both contenders have the advantage of kicking off last, so Edinburgh will know what they require to ensure they advance as one of the best runners-up. As things stand, a bonus-point win at home to London Irish would ensure as much.
REMAINING FIXTURES
Tomorrow: Bath v Glasgow, 1.30pm; Leinster v Montpellier, 1.30pm.
LEINSTER have qualified and know that a win of any kind at home to Montpellier in the early Saturday kick-off will ensure a home quarter-final, most probably at the Aviva Stadium and most likely against Harlequins or Ulster.
As the lowest ranked of the second-placed sides, even if Glasgow win in Bath, they would need favours – such as Munster beating Northampton and Castres beating Scarlets – to qualify for the Challenge Cup.
REMAINING FIXTURES
Tomorrow: Leicester v Aironi, 3.40pm; Clermont v Ulster, 3.40pm.
DEFEAT for either Harlequins or Toulouse would ensure Ulster progress as one of the best runners-up. Unless Harlequins or Toulouse lose tonight though, Ulster will go into their imposing head-to-head with Clermont requiring at least a bonus point to progress. Were they to deny Clermont a bonus point, they could qualify as group winners on the head-to-head record.
A Harlequins win with a bonus point however, would leave Ulster requiring at least a draw or two losing bonus points to advance as one of the best runners-up.
For were they to finish runners-up on 19 or 20 points, and behind ’Quins, they could then be overtaken on Sunday by Edinburgh if both they and Cardiff win at home to London Irish and Racing. Victory would, of course, ensure Ulster progress.
Clermont know a win by more than seven points will guarantee their qualification, or failing that a win while scoring more tries, or a win with the same number of tries and by more than five points.
