It says a good deal about the way things have gone for Newcastle United over the past couple of seasons that just about nobody seems to give them a chance of beating Alex Ferguson's side at Wembley this afternoon. But the fact is that Manchester United are not overwhelming favourites to win the game for nothing.

It doesn't seem all that long ago that Newcastle beat their rivals 50 and while that was scarcely a genuine reflection of the two sides' standing in relation to each other at the time, there was certainly little enough to choose between them then.

Now it's a very different story with United one third of the way to the treble and Newcastle, not for the first time in recent years, a team in transition. In the circumstances you can't help but feel sorry for supporters of Ruud Gullit's club but they remain patient and it would be nice to see them rewarded for their faith and enthusiasm.

Personally, however, I just can't see today being the day they they finally get to crack open the champagne. The gap between these two sides is apparent in just about every area of the pitch and over the 90 minutes I can't see how Newcastle can win it or how United could end up losing.

Up front there is at least the prospect that the likes of Alan Shearer and Duncan Ferguson can cause the Premiership champions some problems, especially if Jaap Stam is unfit or not risked. But Ferguson, as usual, is not certain to play and even if he does the pair will need a level of service from midfield that Newcastle have rarely produced over the course of this season.

There have been some minor success stories with Gary Speed looking like a revitalised player in recent months and Dietmar Hamann really showing his class after some initial problems at the club. But the strange thing is that Gullit, who unlike his predecessors has been severely restricted in his ability to strengthen the side, has seemed better able to get the best out of Kenny Dalglish's signings than his own.

Everywhere, though, the team is a little short of quality including the back where he is likely to have to partner Nicos Dabizas with Laurent Charvet despite the fact that the latter has been out injured for a while now and, for instance, could probably think himself fortunate to be granted a place on the bench if he were a United player at the same stage of a comeback.

Gullit doesn't enjoy the same range of quality players that his opposite number has to choose from, however, and while he has chopped and changed his team in recent weeks I don't think there is very much doubt that he has known his best team for this game for some time.

Charvet, then, will probably be thrown back into it today because, alongside Dabizas, who looks terribly vulnerable when confronted with a bit of pace, his speed will be badly needed and the only other options for Gullit would involve bringing in somebody without the experience required for a game like this.

Behind them Steve Harper will almost certainly be in goal, a fact that will come as a hard blow for Shay Given but one which the Irishman can really have few complaints about after the way the second half of the season has gone for him.

Harper, in fact, got a brief run of games in the first team earlier in the season and, for my money, did enough then to keep his place when Shay was fit again. Unfortunately, Shay simply hasn't played all that well over the past few months and even at his best his inability to dominate or to be seen to dominate his own area is a problem, particularly against a team like United who can vary their game in an attempt to exploit a perceived weakness like that.

Still, overall it is a little unfair to judge Gullit on the basis of the players he currently has at St James' Park and for that reason I don't think there will be too much pressure felt by anybody at the club going into the game. United are the favourites, Gullit is expected to change things over the season and so, in a way, Newcastle are free to go out there today and attempt to enjoy themselves.

In the circumstances, if they hit their stride they might just get lucky but, at the very least, they could hardly do any worse than last year against Arsenal when they completely failed to perform.

Their luck, though, would probably have to extend to United underperforming this time too if they were to actually win the game and that, right now, seems a little too much to ask for.

Ferguson's players haven't really been playing too well of late but they are still winning their games and that, as we never seem to tire of saying these days, is the mark of a good side.

Today, when Roy Keane will play for the last time because of his European suspension, United might even have a better team on the pitch than they do on Wednesday, but whatever people say about this being the least important part of the treble attempt, everybody out there is going to be playing to win, looking to move one step closer to making history, and frankly I can't see any way that they are going to slip up.

The loss of Stam would be a blow as will the absence of Denis Irwin but there is a great deal of depth there and I think Ferguson, who will bring in Phil Neville for Irwin and who has a couple of options in the centre will not feel unduly worried about the changes he has to make.

Neither will the players be too concerned by the way their week's preparations have been disturbed by the allegations made against Keane. At this stage they are too close to their objective to be distracted by things like that.

When they go out there today they will be ticking another game off the list and, unless things unfold in a very surprising manner, they'll be collecting another piece of silverware too.

(In an interview with Emmet Malone)