THIS afternoon we see two sides at Wembley who have been made to look quite poor during the opening round group matches but who will be really putting it all on the line to earn a vital win.

Hopefully this will be the afternoon when the tournament actually takes off. Overall, I have to say that I have been a bit disappointed with the fare so far. Like most first rounds in these major tournaments, the managers seem paralysed by the fear of losing. The play has been very nervy. Other things have disappointed me, too. The standard of set pieces has been surprisingly bad with very few worthwhile or imaginative plays from free kicks or corners. The refereeing has generally been a let down as well and it's a pity to see a team like Romania going home on foot of a bad decision.

Will England and Scotland be the turning point? I doubt it.

I thought Holland's second half performance against the Swiss on Thursday night just served to emphasise how poor England were in their first game against the same opposition.

I was disappointed with Holland in the last half hour against Scotland but when they scored that first goal against Switzerland it calmed them down and they have found the football which we hoped to see from them.

I think England will go to Wembley next week needing a result against the Dutch and that could be beyond them.

As for Scotland, there was much furore about the performance against the Dutch and it was certainly a brave showing but on balance there is no question that Holland should have beaten them.

On the evidence of that game it's still hard to see Scotland scoring a goal in the entire competition, although they'll certainly not try any harder than in today's outing. They just seem to lack the thrust around the penalty area that makes a difference in these situations.

It will be hard for the Scots to raise their game for a second time inside a week even against England and you would have to say that if the English don't beat Scotland, having already failed to beat the Swiss, then they don't deserve to go any further in this competition.

Going into this group we would have said that Switzerland were the team that Holland or England would have to beat to be sure of advancing. Holland have beaten them. England haven't and this afternoon they have one of these local derby situations in which anything can happen. I think England will come through it though.

Against the Dutch almost every Scot on the pitch played well with John Collins producing more tackles than I had ever seen him put in before, while the sight of Gordon Durie chasing opposition players right back to the edge of his own area showed that the Scots basically realised that they had no hope of making the running themselves and had to concentrate on neutralising the efforts of their opponents.

That, I would imagine, will be the plan again today with every player being assigned a very specific task to undertake while the English are in possession but, with the threat of having to win against the Dutch on Tuesday hanging over them, the determination of the home team should be enough to see them through.

Brown will probably stick with the same team that held out at Villa Park but I think Venables will finally have realised that Paul Gascoigne is not capable of producing the goods for England when he is played as part of a four man midfield.

Sometimes at international level a manager can be blind to the shortcomings of a player he has had at club level but the way the England team in general, and Gascoigne in particular, played last week appears to require action by the England boss.

I think we shall see the return of David Platt, assuming he is fit again, and the reversion to a three man defence with Southgate the man to lose out in the reshuffle.

Platt, meanwhile, contributes little other than around the opposition area but this is a key area for the England today and his strike rate is exceptional at a time when his side could do with scoring a few goals.

One further change I would make would be to bring in Steve Stone on the right in place of Anderton. After such a long time out Anderton appeared to get through his couple of games on adrenalin but he does not look to be back to full fitness.

Stone, on the other hand, is quick and, more importantly, would tackle in midfield - something which only Ince seemed to do to any effect last week.

The media treatment of the English players has been very harsh and is likely to add fuel to today's fire.

So far I think that it's the old favourites who look the most likely to succeed after a week of football. Germany played well within themselves in beating the Czech Republic and Italy have so far shown a great strength in depth and for a side that usually start slowly seem to have their rhythm early.

The Italians have been surprisingly attack minded so early in the tournament. They scored early on against Russia and found their confidence. They still spread wide at the back and hope to catch the opposition on the break but they can change the tempo of a game so quickly that they are exciting to watch.

One week down and Germany and Italy look like the teams to beat for anyone serious about winning this tournament.

(In an interview with Tom Humphries)