Cyprus v Ireland Nicosia, today, 6.0So certain was England manager Howard Kendall his side would qualify for the European Youth Championship final after two group matches here in 1998 that he made the mistake of complaining to Brian Kerr about the official schedule for teams staying on until the tournament's end. As it turned out, the English lost their third game to Croatia while the Irish overran the locals to steal in to a final they won.
Seven years on the man now in charge of the senior Irish team will not have forgotten the dangers of tempting fate. On paper, tonight's game at the GSP Stadium in Nicosia should be a formality, leaving Ireland's World Cup destiny to be decided at Lansdowne Road next Wednesday when the Swiss take the field.
If his team were to drop points this evening, however, Kerr knows it will be the end of the road, and so the 52-year-old is unlikely to make the mistake of his one-time rival by taking anything for granted.
As he selects his team, Kerr must figure without Roy Keane, Andy Reid or Clinton Morrison.
During a sometimes tense press conference yesterday the Dubliner confirmed Graham Kavanagh would deputise for the Manchester United skipper in midfield.
Stephen Elliot, having started in the Faroes and had a brief run-out against the Italians, looks likely to replace Morrison in attack. But there is a greater question mark over the right side of midfield, where Steven Reid could yet be selected, if fit, but a 38th international cap for Steve Finnan seems more probable.
"There is," grinned Kerr yesterday morning, "one more possibility but it would probably be a little too complicated to explain."
The only obvious alternative would be to change the system to play three up front, but while there would be a certain logic to it, the switch would seem an unlikely gamble at such a crucial point in the campaign.
Reid would be seen as the more attacking of the other two options, but having struggled with an ankle problem for most of the week his chances of starting have slipped, and Finnan's considerable experience means he should be reliable even if he is being asked to play in a more offensive role than usual.
Elliott, by comparison, is too short of experience for comfort, but it would be a surprise if David Connolly has skipped back over the 21-year-old in the pecking order. And it would be a full-blown shock if Kerr opted to forego even a portion of Duff's ability to torment defenders of the quality the Cypriots possess with his running by playing him up front.
In Dublin last year, the Chelsea winger's contribution was crucial, and without Andy Reid on the right he will be at least as central a figure as the Irish set about opening up their opponents.
He will be hampered by a cut to his foot, but Kerr expects Duff and Stephen Carr to be fit as his side set out to achieve the win needed to salvage something from this campaign.
"When you start out your ambition is clearly to win the group," said Kerr, "but you have to be realistic as you go on, so of course I'd settle for second place now.
"I'm disappointed with the points total," he conceded, "but you can't bring the points that got away back now. All we can do is try to learn whatever we can from the game we lost and ones we drew and try to put anything that went wrong right. We'll certainly be looking to do that here and on Wednesday."
Anything less than a win is unthinkable, even if the recent performances by the hosts suggest that, under Angelos Anastassiades, a coach with a good reputation at the top level in Greece, it will not be easy for the Irish.
Since he was installed at the end of last year, after the team had made a particularly poor start to the campaign, the new man has overseen a small but significant improvement. The Cypriots beat the Faroes 3-0 away (they had drawn 2-2 with them here last October), lost by just one goal away to the Swiss and then got within 19 minutes of earning a draw against Kobi Kuhn's side in the return game last month, only to crumble.
"This match," he says, "is very important after the result against the Swiss. I was very depressed by the way we lost that game 3-1. We face the same problems in this match, in that we are a team with nothing to play for and it's hard getting the message across that we need to win at whatever the cost.
"The team that wants to win most," he added, "usually does."
If Ireland don't edge their opponents on that score then they won't have any complaints. But the respective levels of interest might be gauged by reference to the supporters, with 13,500 Irish fans expected at the game which the Cypriot FA are struggling to sell to the locals, in part because many intend to watch the televised match between Denmark and Greece instead.
Anastassiades has caused controversy during the build-up to this game by failing to include any players from local league leaders Omonia in his 19-man panel, and several of those omitted face disciplinary measures for their reaction to the news.
But even a point tonight would end the debate on his selection policy, and the manager would dearly love to exert some influence on the group table's final appearance before, most likely, walking away from the job after Wednesday's game in Paris.
The ease with which they were beaten in Lansdowne Road last year would certainly suggest, however, that if they are to avoid defeat in either game it will have been primarily a case of one of the group's big guns badly backfiring.
PROBABLE LINE-UPS
CYPRUS: Panayiotou (Panachaiki, Greece); Ilia (Apoel), Lambrou (Ethnikos), Louka (Anorthosis), Garpozis (Xanthi, Greece); Michail (Apoel), Makridis (Apoel), Aloneftis (Larissa, Greece), Charalampidis (PAO, Greece); Okkas (Olympiakos), Constantinou (Olympiakos).
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND: Given (Newcastle Utd); Carr (Newcastle Utd), Cunningham (Birmingham City), Dunne (Manchester City), O'Shea (Manchester Utd); Finnan (Liverpool), Kavanagh (Wigan Athletic), Kilbane (Everton), Duff (Chelsea); Keane (Tottenham), Elliott (Sunderland).
