GAELIC GAMES/All-Ireland SH semi-final/Kilkenny v Waterford: Rarely has the evidence for a big match been as confusing and hard to process. We know Waterford were phenomenal in June but have to take their current form on trust six weeks after the Munster final.
We know Kilkenny were flat in June but they have since exploited the qualifiers well to restore a sense of purpose and recast the team.
Next we know the six-week break will have left Waterford either ring rusty or fresh as daisies and that the outside-track scrapping means Kilkenny are battle-hardened - or just plain fatigued.
On the face of it this is Kilkenny's match, assuming as expected that Henry Shefflin will be recovered from last week's controversial eye injury to play a full role, when the team is named, probably tomorrow. Last night, he took part in some light training.
Perm the appropriate information above and throw in Waterford's nervy form in recent Croke Park visits, a debutant goalkeeper and a suspended All Star forward and it's hard to go against the champions.
There are other details to redress the balance but how far will it tilt? This has been a good year so far for the Munster champions. It has marked a departure in the manner of winning matches and also highlighted important improvements. Waterford seemed miffed after hammering Clare that so few pundits had rated their chances.
Whereas the evidence of the NHL final both undervalued Waterford and overvalued Galway, there was the uncomfortable fact that Justin McCarthy's team had tumbled to its three most recent championship defeats when strongly fancied to win.
There's little doubt that those reservations have been stilled by a hard-fought campaign during which they carried the favourites' tag into big matches against Tipperary and Cork. The overwhelming adversity of the Munster final made the victory twice as sweet as the exhibition stuff that sank Tipp two years ago.
There's no doubting the nerve of the management. Dropping your goalkeeper before an All-Ireland semi-final against predatory opposition is tough decision-making.
Bringing in a young forward, Shane O'Sullivan, as a straight replacement for Mullane in order to minimise disruption throughout the field shows confidence.
Gerry Fitzpatrick's training regime has been credited with improved fitness but as one observer puts it: "His speciality is getting teams right for the big day" - which after all is the essence of physical preparation.
These improvements are persuasive when assessing the risk of another Croke Park underachievement and it's also important to emphasise that for all the heroic intensity with which Kilkenny have battled so far, the champions' transformation isn't complete.
Against Galway they were driven and irresistible but other big matches have suggested problems. Whereas the defence is excellent with Tommy Walsh thriving and JJ Delaney keeping a tight grip on his hurler-of-the-year title, Michael Kavanagh returned and Peter Barry improving, they have yet to face a team like Waterford.
Wexford's fleet-footed tactics whipped the Leinster semi-final from under Kilkenny's nose even though the ultimate deliverance was somewhat out of the blue, but few are fancying that would work again were the teams to meet in the All-Ireland final.
Similarly whereas Clare's minimalist, physical game disconcerted Kilkenny, they didn't have the forwards to capitalise. Waterford can move like Wexford, hit (or more importantly take hits) like Clare and score.
Kilkenny weakened the argument about the scale of their reliance on Henry Shefflin in the replay - as he struggled and DJ Carey gave his best display in two years - but only against a team that struggled for nine points. The chances were there but inaccuracy and poor decision-making squandered them.
They will also be aware tomorrow that containing Ken McGrath at centre back will be a good afternoon's work for whoever's given the task. The battle in the half lines will be fascinating because all four can be designed to dominate depending on who's switched in and out of the half forwards.
Then there are other reservations about both teams. Will Waterford's full backs be the transformed unit that snapped shut on Cork in the second half of the Munster final or the Mack Sennett extras of the first half? Can Dan Shanahan maintain his astonishingly prolificacy? Will Paul Flynn rise to this occasion as he did in Thurles? Are Kilkenny bound for the quicksand that claimed Clare in 1998 because of their inability to consistently produce full-on performances? Or have they a priceless advantage denied to Clare - having lost a match and consequently been able to regroup and refocus?
No one really knows. It may all look so obvious even within minutes of the throw-in but right now the evidence invites us to pick and choose. The inclination here is towards Waterford and it comes from faith in the team's experience and new-found assurance and a suspicion that Kilkenny have had to do too much in too short a period to get here.
