Weakened Wales will struggle

WALES v AUSTRALIA: BEFORE THE start of last year’s autumn international series, Wales coach Warren Gatland revealed his ambition…

WALES v AUSTRALIA:BEFORE THE start of last year's autumn international series, Wales coach Warren Gatland revealed his ambition to break into the top four of the world rankings.

Twelve months on the men in red lie in ninth position, only one better than when Gatland was hired at the end of 2007 following a dismal World Cup in France.

Wales are the lowest ranked of the Home Unions. Excluding their tour of North America in 2009, they have lost 10 of their last 15 internationals, their victories coming against Italy (twice), Scotland, Samoa and Argentina.

They go into the first of their four autumn internationals, against Australia in Cardiff on Saturday, again bedevilled by injuries, with Lee Byrne, Jamie Roberts, Ryan Jones and Leigh Halfpenny among the unavailable.

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“When we field our strongest side, we can beat anyone in the world on our day,” said Gatland. “It is a matter of having everyone fit. It was looking pretty good for us a couple of weeks ago, but then we had four or five players ruled out at virtually the same time. Strength-in-depth has been a problem, but young players are coming through. It’s all about confidence.”

Gatland last month signed a contract keeping him with Wales until 2015. The aim of the Welsh Rugby Union was to provide stability going into next year’s World Cup, although if Wales – in the group with South Africa, Fiji and Samoa – perform as abjectly in New Zealand as they did in France, the union has fitted Gatland’s seat with an ejector button.

If Wales’ recent record is unflattering, they have not often been soundly beaten. Ireland in last season’s Six Nations vies for their poorest display with last year’s dismantling by Australia at the Millennium Stadium, a game that showed Wales did not have the copyright to enterprising rugby, but generally they have tended to give the opposition a leg-up.

Wales were comfortably placed at Twickenham last season when Alun Wyn Jones tripped Dylan Hartley and was sent to the bin, returning when his side were 17 points worse off; France were handed two interception tries in the first half in Cardiff the following month, surviving a comeback after the break; last November there was a moment when they looked as if they could at least draw with the All Blacks as Wyn Jones had the freedom of the Millennium Stadium only to melt in the heat of the moment.

“Little things have cost us,” said James Hook, who is likely to be named at fullback today in the absence of Byrne and Halfpenny, even though Gatland would prefer him to be closer to the action.

“We have made silly mistakes and paid for them. We have shown we can last for 80 minutes, but too often we have given ourselves too much to do.”

The change of emphasis at the breakdown by referees this season should help Wales, but the backrow is not their strongest area with Ryan Jones injured and Andy Powell unavailable. Openside flanker Martyn Williams may not be deemed physical enough to cope with David Pocock, whose ability to win turnovers enhances a back division that views kicking out of hand with disdain.

Gatland is not the first Wales coach to struggle to find the key to gain entry through the door marked “top four”. The Welsh Rugby Union has invested heavily in the international game but none of this month’s matches, which see South Africa, Fiji and New Zealand follow the Wallabies to Cardiff, is yet anywhere near a sell-out. Defeat on Saturday would depress demand further.

Wales have made it a deliberate policy to tempt the major Southern Hemisphere unions to Cardiff, but they have managed only three victories over them in the professional era: against Australia in 2005 and 2008 and an understrength South Africa in 1999 in a game to test whether the Millennium Stadium was up to hosting the World Cup. Television was the equivalent of the iPad when they last beat the All Blacks.

“We have to get consistency and build on that,” said Gatland. “What we have to do this month is improve after each game, as we did in New Zealand last summer when there was a massive difference in our performance in the second Test.” Wales lost that game by 19 points, but not before they rattled the All Blacks.

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