Wexford's Storey to end with glory

SELDOM has so little been so wrongly expected of All Ireland finalists on so many occasions during a season

SELDOM has so little been so wrongly expected of All Ireland finalists on so many occasions during a season. Limerick and Wexford face into tomorrow's Guinness All Ireland hurling final with a similar track record - overwhelmingly fancied for only one match during their long campaigns, against Antrim and Dublin respectively.

In fairness to the record, however, each county was overwhelmingly expected to lose only one match as well, the meetings, respectively, with last year's finalists, Clare and Offaly. Everything else has been more in the 50-50 region of speculation.

The dogged and frequently exhilarating performances conjured up by the counties have added enormously to the magnificent season which concludes this weekend and both can happily reflect that, between them, they have beaten every single county with the remotest claim on a championship: in other words every All Ireland winning county going back to Waterford in 1959 - with the obvious exception of Limerick and Wexford themselves.

That said, and maybe it's the habits of a season which has bred scepticism in prediction making, a feeling persists that this year's champions are going to be the side that best answers the questions still hovering around them. Five issues will in all likelihood decide the matter.

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Firstly, what sort of performance ratios will Gary Kirby and his colleagues in the Limerick attack manage? There can be no doubting Kirby's importance, no matter how much Limerick cite the Munster final replay. In the absence of a disintegrating opposition full back line, can they cope with a reduced contribution?

Probably not, but this depends on Kirby's input being reduced. Given that Kirby rarely if ever obliges of his own accord, the responsibility falls to Liam Dunne, who is favoured here to have mixed fortunes in his attempt to get tight - and that still adds up to a few scores.

There is a sense in which the Limerick attack is maligned. Five of them have chipped in with crucial scores this season and the main concern is whether Damien Quigley, replaced on all but one of his appearances, can finally ignite as he did on this occasion two years ago. Ger Cushe offers him some hope in that he is more physical than swift, but he is also experienced and dogged beyond belief.

The Limerick attack have survived the best defence in the country, Clare's, and made light of a highly regarded one, Tipperary's. Nonetheless, Wexford's defence has been impressive, particularly Dunne, Rod Guiney and Sean Flood, and although it has leaked more goals than Limerick's, the average score conceded per match has been slightly lower.

Secondly, and on the subject of the Wexford defence, Flood's fitness test is profoundly important. His credentials at the back this season have been excellent, whether at corner back or wing back. He saved Wexford from a Sean Ryan goal against Kilkenny and thereafter his displays never slackened.

A further detail in this crisis is the fate of Larry O'Gorman. If Flood doesn't make it, the most likely permutations involve O'Gorman dropping out of midfield and this would not be to the team advantage, particularly against the monolithic challenge of Mike Houlihan and Sean O'Neill. O'Gorman has manned midfield in the campaign's trickier assignments and his energy and industry create space for Adrian Fenlon to maximise his game, moving and distributing the best quality ball a Wexford attack has seen in years.

Thirdly, that attack is generally seen as being somewhat superior to Limerick's, although Wexford captain Martin Storey is nearly as irreplaceable as Kirby, whose qualification stems at least partly from free taking - but Storey's productivity from play is better. Storey's clash with Ciaran Carey will be fascinating, but to guarantee anything, the Limerick captain may have to sacrifice his own game a bit more than his team will find comfortable.

Larry Murphy's pace poses containable dangers, but the quality of finish he displayed in the Leinster final is even more alarming, if also less frequent. Murphy and Tom Dempsey have been Storey's leading support players and their scoring averages indicate greater potency than TJ Ryan and, say, Frankie Carroll, their Limerick equivalents.

Limerick do hold a free taking advantage - probably over every county in Ireland - as Eamonn Scallan's dead ball performances have been erratic, although Dempsey's back up in the All Ireland semifinal was flawless.

Rory McCarthy's wanderings around the middle have been vital to the team, even over the confusion created. Mark Foley, who has had a very impressive debut season at wing back, will be well tested in a tactical sense.

The strength in the air of Garry Laffan and his inevitable replacement Billy Byrne are an echo of more traditional times in Wexford, and if the steady Mike Nash is probably happier with a physical challenge, so, we thought, were Pat Dwyer and Kevin Kinahan.

Fourthly, there is the voodoo argument on which I am an authority - having used it as a disastrous starting point for an argument in favour of Cork against Limerick all those weeks ago.

The fact that Limerick lost a final two years ago is as likely to unnerve them as it is to inspire. Harvesting success from defeat normally requires more than one setback. Cork needed two in the early 1980s, Dublin's footballers needed an infinity and then there is the bleak consideration that some teams lose and come back only to keep losing until they become quite good at it.

There is a balancing argument that some sides do fairly well in their first final, buoyed up - like Clare last year - by the strength of public sentiment and the lack of pressure that comes with already having a famous season in the bag, regardless of the All Ireland result.

Fifthly, there are the teams' respective styles. Wexford manager Liam Griffin has established a gameplan which the players have followed rigorously. The play is spread wide and they have controlled all their matches to date, sometimes with clever switches and tactical sleight of hand.

Limerick have tended to be more frantic, have had to draw deeper and rely on the individual heroics of central personalities. Whereas they have overcome too much to be discounted, the marginal preference here is for Wexford to cap a memorable season in fitting style.