GAELIC GAMES All-Ireland SFC Final Kerry v Cork:IT WOULD have been hard to imagine after Kerry had ransacked Cork in 2007 that another GAA All-Ireland football final between the counties would, within two years, be a matter of such keen anticipation.

Once again, the occasionally maligned qualifier system has filtered the best teams in the championship through to the last day, and acknowledgement of some one-sided finals this decade doesn’t alter that.

Part of the fascination of tomorrow’s match is the terms of engagement can’t be analysed on a like-for-like basis. On all known form Cork must win. Their strength and pace have powered them through matches on a steady trajectory.

The only pause for breath came in the Munster final against Limerick, and even then they managed to dig out a win from most unpromising circumstances.

All-Ireland champions Tyrone were flung aside, with only Alan O’Connor’s red card just before half-time coming between them and a thrashing. The speed and intensity of Cork’s game left the Ulster champions literally gasping as they absorbed the hits and struggled to piece together their own previously irresistible pressing tactics.

Kerry travelled a different route in all respects. Take away the match against Dublin, effectively a performance in a vacuum, and Jack O’Connor’s side have struggled to look the part.

So why are the bookies taking in so much money on Kerry?

Simply because the psychology of teams is so important and mental factors tilt matches.

This is the fifth occasion on which the counties will have met a few weeks after Cork have beaten their neighbours in the province. Kerry have yet to lose one of these re-matches.

It constitutes enough baggage for an around-the-world cruise.

But does that mean Cork will never beat Kerry in the All-Ireland series? Obviously not.

So the question is – have we reached the tipping point?

The view here is we have.

It was put to me two years ago during the rugby world cup that one of the reasons the All Blacks have done so badly in the competition is an inability to win tight matches. They either steamroll the opposition or lose to them.

Already this decade Kerry have won three All-Irelands by a cumulative 31 points; they have lost three by a cumulative eight. They could, of course, hammer Cork again tomorrow; but how will they do if the match is still there with 10 or so minutes left?

The fragility or otherwise of Cork’s mentality has to be an issue, as does their younger, less experienced team going in against a side playing a sixth All-Ireland final on the trot.

Experience, however, isn’t everything. Jimmy Barry-Murphy said during the week he was more nervous as an older player going into All-Irelands than he had been as a teenager in 1973.

Cork’s under-21 graduates have a successful history against Kerry, and whatever else thwarts them it won’t be the colour of the jersey.

It should also be borne in mind that Conor Counihan has effected a paradigm shift in the team’s attitude. Last year’s semi-final contained football every bit as poor as that which had sent the team crashing in previous years, but somehow they got up off the floor and made Kerry scrap for a win the then champions were glad to get.

Question marks – if Ray Carey can’t play does the rumoured selection of Eoin Cadogan at full back make sense?

Going well in training is one thing, but translating that into an edge-of-the-square All-Ireland performance is another. No matter how confident the player, his confidence in his ability and his actual ability to do a job are separate issues.

Whoever’s there will mark Tommy Walsh according to the selection. That gives benefits to Jack O’Connor’s side in terms of high-ball attacking, but the team has only re-discovered a fast, combination style that was effective against Dublin but relies on Declan O’Sullivan being close to goal.

O’Sullivan’s scoring threat recedes when he moves out, and the tendency to play deep would suit Graham Canty down to the ground, whereas Tadhg Kennelly’s central play was excellent in the Meath semi-final and might be better suited to pinning down the Cork captain.

Kerry have to be concerned at the prospects of Anthony Lynch repeating his Páirc Uí­ Chaoimh shut-out on Colm Cooper. Lynch is intelligent and feisty, but he looked in trouble whenever Tyrone got ball to Stephen O’Neill.

Which begs the question – will Kerry empower Cooper? And if so, how?

In Munster, Kerry couldn’t buy possession, with Alan Quirke’s kick-outs bombing down on Pearse O’Neill, with Nicholas Murphy and Alan O’Connor pulling wide. Things have been a lot better in Kerry’s centrefield since, but Tyrone have shown how even Darragh Ó Sé on song doesn’t guarantee victory.

Tomás Ó Sé and Paul Galvin are in terrific form processing loose ball, but, as a unit, Cork’s middle eight have been formidable on the breaks.

There may be a suspicion in Kerry that Cork’s full forward can be disrupted. Donncha O’Connor isn’t having his best year, but the collective impact has been good.

Daniel Goulding has a good goal-scoring record against Kerry, whereas Colm O’Neill has combined the brazenness of youth with some good shooting and doesn’t look likely to be inhibited by the occasion.

Kerry will throw everything they can at this in the early stages, but when the smoke clears the belief here is that Cork will still be standing and after that there’s only one winner.