Rugby: If the quality remotely matches the quantity, it's going to be a massive year for the game as a whole and for Ireland and the provinces in particular, writes Gerry Thornley

Plenty of sporting events claim to be the third biggest globally, however bogus those claims may be, but certainly there'll be none bigger in 2003. The inaugural World Cup was seen as no more than an addendum to the then-Five Nations and the rest of rugby's annual staple diet. But though the now Six Nations has grown and the Heineken European Cup has evolved, the fifth World Cup will loom over the year like never before.

Though the traditionalists mightn't like that scenario, the flip side is that World Cup years in any sports tend to have spin-offs in the months beforehand and beyond. Players want to get to Oz, and then will want to peak there. Once there, results and performances will define years and even careers.

Yet there is so much else to play for, and Irish rugby has never seemed better equipped to cope. The provinces resume their Heineken Cup campaigns in the make or break final two pool rounds of the competition this month, with Leinster primed for a home quarter-final, Munster going toe to toe with Gloucester and Perpignan in a high-class pool, and Ulster gamely remaining in contention with Northampton still to visit Ravenhill for another tumultuous night.

Even Connacht are holding up their end of the deal with a two-legged Parker Pen Challenge Cup quarter-final against Pontypridd to look forward to.

And the crock of gold at the end of the rainbow for the Irish provinces couldn't be greater, as there is the promise of a Lansdowne Road final in the Heineken Cup. But Toulouse and Trevor Brennan hover even more ominously than the English heavyweights.

Before then the Six Nations will have been and gone, rushed off with indecent haste over seven weeks. You wonder how long the game's administrators, under pressure from self-interested club owners, can continue to tamper with the European game's golden goose.

As an aside, Keith Wood is not alone in believing that the greater intensity of a Six Nations featuring only two "rest" weekends will place extra strains on squads, and that this in turn will benefit the stronger, i.e., England and France, rather than those with smaller pools of players.

Nevertheless, Ireland are entitled to think of themselves as the main rivals to France and England. Both must also come to Lansdowne Road, where only New Zealand (just) have made off with a win of the last 11 visitors to the venue since the Springboks won there over two years ago.

Yet the first game determines so much. Until the last two seasons, for 12 years in a row, Ireland lost their opening match in the championship and were thereafter on the back foot, only twice finishing as high as third. In the last two seasons, Ireland won their opening games, and accordingly had their best campaigns in that 14-year period, finishing third and second out of six, as opposed to five.

At least the Six Nations is an entity in its own right, whereas the summer tour games and the August warm-up matches will be looked upon in the context of the World Cup. It'll be a relief when it eventually starts.

The World Cup ran over five weeks and 41 games last time around in Britain, Ireland and France in 1999, but this time it will be held over six weeks, with a record 48 games, and in one country. That's probably for the best. The last World Cup was an anti-climax, a chance missed, you felt. The typically progressive and forward-thinking Australian federation will revel in the chance to go it alone.

Amid the euphoria generated by Ireland's record-equalling winning run of six this season, incorporating those wins over Australia and Argentina, there's still no escaping that Ireland have a brute of a draw. Of the five, Pool A is the only one featuring three of the world's top six sides.

In this Ireland are again paying not only for the sins of Lens in '99, when they lost that fateful quarter-final play-off to the Pumas, but also for the vagaries of the RWC board's seeding system. Ireland were ranked the best of those to miss out on the quarter-finals, but Argentina were given a World Cup ranking of eighth because they had the poorest qualifying record of the beaten quarter-finalists in '99, having come through their pool behind both Wales and Samoa as best third-placed side.

So, with Australia ranked first as world champions, and Argentina eighth, Ireland have been thrown in with those two. To give Ireland's draw another familiar hue, they'll meet Romania - also opponents in the pool stages in '99. Namibia, along with New Zealand the only countries Ireland have never beaten, provide a bit of variety.

Ireland's itinerary throws up Romania and Namibia first and second, and one can't help but feel the third match, against Argentina in Adelaide on Sunday, October 26th, will help define Eddie O'Sullivan's tenure as Irish coach. Victory would avenge Lens, would assuredly propel Ireland into the quarter-finals, which is the the threshold for Irish teams as decreed by the first three World Cups, and, as an aside, would mean avoiding unwanted qualifiers another three years down the road.

Defeat would simply revive all those nightmares.

Winning the pool would most likely earn a quarter-final against Scotland, with the runners-up consigned to a quarter-final clash with France. But beating the hosts and holders on a sodden Dublin day in November is one thing; in Melbourne next November 1st will be quite another.

Even so, the Wallabies are looking a little frayed around the edges. The conveyor belt couldn't go on chugging out remodels of Johns Eales, Tim Horan and the like forever, and perhaps they're paying for years of what David Campese called boring, no-risk, percentage rugby.

As things stand, the All Blacks look to have the best team in the world, certainly the best points scoring potential, though doubts exist about their pack. France and England can arrive as stronger contenders than the Wallabies or the Springboks, though doubts persist as to Fabien Galthie still bringing his influence to bear, and the ageing host of English warhorses.

If the quality remotely matches the quantity, it's going to be a massive year. Something special stirs for Irish rugby, too, you sense. The quarter-finals or beyond in Australia and, perhaps, Leinster or Munster in a Lansdowne Road Heineken Cup decider.