Zaiyad can start day by defying all the odds

Denman's fan club for today's Royal and SunAlliance Novices Hurdle appears to stretch the length of the Cheltenham straight but…

Denman's fan club for today's Royal and SunAlliance Novices Hurdle appears to stretch the length of the Cheltenham straight but it might just be worth taking him on in the second-day opener with the French hope Zaiyad.

Normally red-hot 5 to 4 favourites are worth taking on in championship events, especially unbeaten novices whose best days appear to be ahead of them. But the SunAlliance can be a different kettle of fish.

Between 1997 and 2000 a run of short-priced winners, including Istabraq, Monsignor and Barton, took the bookies to the cleaners. Except that was quite a cast list of star names. The big question is if Denman is up to that class.

Adrian Maguire, who had Denman as a point-to-point runner in Ireland, is convinced he is exceptional and has been joined by the Paul Nicholls team after four victories in Britain. One of them, here on New Year's Day, was a "monster" performance on the book but there were excuses for some behind him.

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Denman might just be the freakish performer who could turn in a massive performance. But banking on too many 5 to 4 shots is suicidal at the festival.

The day before Denman's rout here, Zaiyad was in a very different environment. Cagner Sur Mer near Nice in the South of France is not a usual festival warm-up venue but at least it was warm, and significantly the horse won easily on good ground.

The Aga Khan-bred horse is owned by Roscommon-born Seán Mulryan whose extensive French bloodstock interests are managed by Herve Barjot. The Frenchman has made no secret for quite some time he believes Zaiyad is Mulryan's best hope this week, and that's including Forget The Past in the Gold Cup.

At a general 8 to 1, and with Barry Geraghty on board for the first time, he makes more appeal than the red-hot favourite and the Noel Meade pair, Nicanor and Mr Nosie.

Willie Mullins looks set to extend his remarkable domination of the Weatherbys Champion Bumper and since Ruby Walsh had the pick of the Co Carlow trainer's formidable quartet it seems reasonable to assume Equus Maximus is the best hope among them.

There was plenty to like about the way he dismissed a well regarded field at Leopardstown in late-January and the form got a timely boost last week from Tex Morgan. Significantly Walsh has picked him over Ballytrim who had been the "talking horse" in the Mullins camp but then backed it up with a wide-margin victory at Thurles. Archie O'Leary's five-year-old hardly loses out in the jockey stakes though with the triple Derby winner John Murtagh on board.

If there is a threat to Irish hegemony it comes from Leading Contender who last appeared here in November but retains a big reputation.

Leading Contender's trainer Philip Hobbs also has Zabenz in the SunAlliance Chase where Our Ben is the shortest priced of the three-strong Irish team.

The Mullins horse looked a natural for a race like this when he powered up the hill in last year's SunAlliance Hurdle but he hasn't impressed with his style of racing this season. The class to win is there but Ruby Walsh faces a real test in trying to get this enigmatic sort home in front.

His cause will be helped though by doubts over The Railway Man's stamina and a home defence that doesn't appear to contain strength in depth. The Listener and Darkness appear to the be best regarded amongt them but Zabenz looks like he may be a touch of each-way value if his jumping has sharpened up.

Much has been made of the handicapping of Irish horses in Britain this year but it might be hard to argue against the British weights team if the Coral Cup turns into a visitors benefit.

It's certainly possible to make a good case for JP McManus's runner No Where To Hyde who was patently unsuited by the inside two-mile course at Leopardstown in the Pierse. He was running on powerfully at the end and this race should bring his undoubted stamina into play.

Liberthine was a 25 to 1 winner of the Mildamy of Flete last year but there will be no such fancy odds about her in the Kim Muir this time round. It's easy to see why. There's plenty to like about her chance.

Brian O'Connor's Forecasts

2.00 - Zaiyad

2.35 - Zabenz

3.15 - Champion Chase

1. Kauto Star

2. Fota Island

3. River City

4.00 - No Where To Hyde (double)

4.40 - Liberthine (nap)

5.20 - Equus Maximus