The weather in South Africa has been quite mild of late, but that hasn’t stopped many of its residents from being gripped by a winter of discontent.
Over the past few months, daily power cuts, rising fuel and food prices, spiralling crime and chronic joblessness have left many in a state of collective despondency about their future.
According to the South African Police Service, 6,083 people were murdered in the first three months of this year, the highest number recorded over this period in the last five years.
Workers and unions want wage hikes well above the current inflation rate of 7.4 per cent to keep up with the cost of living, and economists warn the country is likely to see increased strike action in the months ahead.
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Last Thursday, former South African president Thabo Mbeki told mourners at the funeral of his African National Congress (ANC) party colleague, Jessie Durate, he feared a violent uprising could hit the nation given the current state of poverty, unemployment and inequality.
Central to people’s pessimism is a sense that fixing South Africa’s many political, economic and social ills increasingly looks beyond president Cyril Ramaphosa. Most South Africans hoped the likable trade-unionist-turned-businessman would turn the country around after winning the ANC’s leadership race in December 2017 and becoming South Africa’s president a few months later.
Stopping endemic public sector corruption and kick-starting economic growth have been central planks of his presidency since replacing Jacob Zuma in February 2018, which are themes that resonate strongly with voters.
But Ramaphosa’s critics say since taking the helm his administration has failed to tackle these challenges with the levels of urgency, decisiveness and competence required to overcome them.
For instance, the current energy crisis, a major obstacle to economic growth and job creation, is worse today than it was in 2008, when the state-run power utility Eskom first implemented power cuts and warned new generation capacity was needed.
The utility has intermittently cut 6,000 megawatts from the grid since last month due to its ageing infrastructure and the need to do maintenance, leaving the country in darkness for hours at a time every day.
In addition, the wheels of justice have moved slowly against dozens of ruling party politicians and government officials accused of corruption at state-run enterprises at an inquiry that started in August 2018. On Monday, Ramaphosa promised to expand generation, slash red tape and buy surplus electricity from private producers in an effort to tackle the crisis.
While some of those suspected of looting the state – including Zuma and several senior ANC figures – are due to stand trial this year, allegations of wrongdoing against politicians and public sector officials continue to emerge nearly weekly.
Furthermore, many political analysts believe Ramaphosa’s inability to address the ANC’s internal divisions have contributed to the current situation, as it has left him unable to manoeuvre the party to collectively implement the necessary reforms.
Compounding people’s depressed and agitated state are two fast-approaching political events that are potential “watershed moments” for the country’s 28-year-old democracy.
The ANC will hold its five-yearly elective conference in December, and although many people have lost faith in Ramaphosa, analysts believe he is a strong favourite for a second term as party leader due to a lack of credible alternatives.
As a result, the ANC’s demise will likely accelerate at the 2024 general election no matter who is leading it, with forecasters saying its share of the vote looks as if it will fall well below 50 per cent for the first time in a national poll since the end of apartheid.
Political analyst Prince Mashele wrote in the online Daily Maverick newspaper last week that life under the ANC had gotten so bad for the country, that all sane South Africans agree there is no future in its hands.
“The results of recent elections – from 2016 to 2021 – suggest very strongly that the ANC will not secure a simple majority in the 2024 elections. Nothing has happened to suggest the ANC can claw its way back,” he maintained.
If the ANC cannot secure a majority in two years’ time, there are potentially three outcomes on the horizon. The first sees some sort of coalition government forming between the ANC and the main opposition, the Democratic Alliance, or the radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters, the country’s third most popular party.
Under the second, a coalition of opposition parties could win the day if the various movements can put their ideological differences aside to remove the ANC from power.
But most worryingly of all, South Africans could see the ANC act like former-liberation-movements-turned-ruling-parties in neighbouring countries, which stand accused of rigging elections and destabilising the country to retain power.
While the ANC has played relatively fair in the national and local elections it has contested to date, there are factions in Africa’s oldest former liberation movement with “form” in this regard.
