Asia-PacificAnalysis

South Korea martial law: Yoon Suk Yeol’s decision will have far-reaching consequences

President’s actions will almost certainly cost him his office as impeachment proceedings planned against him

People gather in front of the National Assembly in Seoul. Photograph: Ahn Young-joon/AP
People gather in front of the National Assembly in Seoul. Photograph: Ahn Young-joon/AP
Denis Staunton's picture
Denis Staunton in Beijing
Wed Dec 04 2024 - 07:06

South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol’s imposition of martial law lasted just six hours before overwhelming opposition from elected politicians and the public forced him to rescind the order. But his action is likely to have far-reaching consequences for the president, his country and its relationship with other states in one of the world’s most geopolitically delicate regions.

Yoon’s attempt to suspend South Korea’s democratic institutions will almost certainly cost him his office and on Wednesday opposition politicians submitted a bill to impeach him. The opposition led by the Democratic Party are just eight votes short of the two thirds majority needed to impeach him and some members of his own People Power Party have condemned Yoon’s martial law declaration.

If the motion passes, the constitutional court will conduct a trial to determine if Yoon violated the constitution or any other law, a process that could take months. In the meantime, the president would be suspended from exercising his powers and the prime minister would become acting head of state and government.

Elected by a narrow margin two years ago, Yoon’s presidency has been beset by scandals including allegations surrounding his wife, who has been accused of stock market manipulation and of improperly accepting the gift of an expensive Dior bag. Last April, his party suffered sweeping losses in parliamentary elections so that it was difficult for him to pass any legislation for his domestic agenda.

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Last week, the National Assembly voted to slash almost $3 billion from Yoon’s proposed 2025 budget, including deep cuts to funding for the president’s office. It was this vote that prompted Yoon, whose popularity is below 20 per cent in recent polls, to order the imposition of martial law as he accused the opposition of subverting the constitutional order.

“The martial law is aimed at eradicating pro-North Korean forces and to protect the constitutional order of freedom,” he said.

The constitution allows the president to impose martial law in certain circumstances but the National Assembly has the power to overturn the decision. Army chief Park An-soo tried to prevent legislators from acting by declaring that all political activity, including in the National Assembly, was proscribed.

South Korea, which emerged from military rule into democracy in the late 1980′s, has a strong culture of public protest that has included mass demonstrations against the stationing of tens of thousands of United States forces in the country. Within minutes of Yoon’s televised announcement of martial law, crowds gathered around the National Assembly building, preventing the military from occupying it and helping legislators to climb over barriers to go inside to vote 190-0 to overturn the declaration.

In one of the most politically polarised democracies in the world, the leading news organisations came together to condemn Yoon and the trade union movement announced a general strike until he leaves office. Despite its bitter divisions, South Korea’s democracy and civil society rose to the challenge it faced on Tuesday night and it prevailed.

As the events unfolded in Seoul, Joe Biden’s administration in watched anxiously but held back from condemning Yoon’s actions. This reflected Washington’s approval of his hawkish approach to relations with North Korea and China and his willingness to deepen security and defence ties not only with the US but with Japan.

Yoon abandoned any consideration of engagement with Pyongyang as soon as he took office, scaling back Seoul’s unification ministry. Earlier this year, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un formally abandoned the goal of unification and designated South Korea his country’s “principal enemy”.

If Yoon is impeached, fresh presidential elections must take place within 60 days and opposition leader Lee Jae-myung would be the favourite to win. Lee advocates a change in foreign policy, calling for warmer relations with China and arguing that Yoon’s confrontational stance is jeopardising the Korean peninsula’s security and prosperity.