Ukraine’s military intelligence agency has said battles in spring and early summer will decide the country’s war with Russia, as Poland pledged to formally seek Berlin’s permission to supply German-made tanks to Kyiv – and to send them regardless of the reply.
“Spring and early summer will be decisive in the war. If the big Russian offensive planned for this time fails, it will be the downfall of Russia and [President Vladimir] Putin,” said Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence.
He predicted “difficult and decisive battles” in the partially occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine, where Moscow says its forces are now slowly moving forward, but Kyiv insists its troops are holding their positions.
“When spring and early summer are behind us, maybe we can start talking about the end of the war. We cannot look far yet, we must pass the first stage – spring and early summer,” he told Estonia’s Delfi news agency.
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“We see what this war is leading to: the Russian military leadership has changed, the first stage of mobilisation has ended, and the Russian army is regrouping. Our assessment is simple: the main activity of the Russian army will take place in Donetsk and Luhansk directions,” he added, playing down fears of a major Russian attack from the north via the territory of its ally, Belarus, or from Crimea in the south, which Moscow annexed in 2014.
Ukraine is pressing western allies to supply it urgently with advanced, powerful weapons systems that would help it overcome Russia’s significant numerical advantage in soldiers and weaponry.
Britain has promised to deliver about 14 of its Challenger tanks to Ukraine and Poland says it is determined to send a similar number of its Leopard tanks to Kyiv’s military along with other likeminded states, regardless of whether Berlin grants formal permission for the re-export of the German-made vehicles.
“We’ll ask for permission, but it’s a secondary issue,” Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Monday.
“Even if we ultimately don’t receive permission, then, despite that, we’d transfer our tanks to Ukraine together with others within a small coalition, even if Germany is not in the coalition,” he added.
“I can say that the pressure – that our efforts to build a coalition of countries that want to help in this dramatic fight in Ukraine – have been effective… This weekend, the German foreign minister sent a slightly different message, which offers a glimmer of hope that Germany will not only be getting out of the way, but will also finally offer modern heavy equipment to support Ukraine.”
German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said on Sunday that no country had asked her government for clearance to send Leopards to Ukraine, but “if we were asked, we would not stand in the way”.
Russian officials now issue daily warnings that the West’s supply of more powerful weapons to Ukraine could lead to a direct confrontation between Moscow and Nato, in what Kyiv describes as a bluff to cow Germany and others into limiting the flow of arms.
[ As Ukraine fights Russia, Germany is fighting with itselfOpens in new window ]
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that tension between Warsaw and Berlin “suggests that anxiety among members of the [Nato] alliance is increasing all the time”.
“But of course, all countries that are directly or indirectly involved in pumping weapons into Ukraine and raising its technological level are responsible for this in one way or another… The main thing, however, is that the Ukrainian people will have to pay for all these actions, for all this pseudo-support,” he added.
