Poland’s opposition leader Donald Tusk has claimed victory in Sunday’s general election after exit polls showed his election alliance with more votes — and 48 more seats in parliament — than the outgoing ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party.
After one of Poland’s most heated campaigns in recent memory, and a record turnout of almost 73 per cent, the national conservative PiS finished first with 36.8 per cent or a projected 200 seats in the 460 lower house of parliament, the Sejm.
If this Ipsos exit poll mirrors the final result, due on Tuesday, PiS will struggle to attract the extra 31 seats it needs to translate its election win into a record third term.
The mood was jubilant at the post-election party of the Civic Coalition (KO), a six-party electoral alliance led by Mr Tusk’s Civic Platform (PO), after it finished second with 31.6 per cent.
“I was never so happy to be on a stage for finishing second, but Poland has won,” said a beaming Mr Tusk, a one-term prime minister a decade ago. “The opposition will have the votes to form a government. We can now say this is the end of the bad times with PiS.”
Two smaller opposition groupings — the Third Way and the Left — took 13 and 8.6 per cent, enough for 55 and 30 seats respectively. They have signalled a readiness to join a Tusk-lead coalition, totalling 248 seats in the 460-seat Sejm or 16 more than required for an absolute majority.
In his first post-election appearance PiS chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski, hinting at concession after an apparent loss of 35 seats, added: “Regardless if we are in power or in opposition we won’t allow for Poland to be betrayed.”
In his first remarks, Mr Kaczynski did not, as some had feared, question the legitimacy of the election, despite reports of people still queueing to vote after polls officially closed at 9pm.
The big loser of the night was the far-right Konferacja, which blended pro-life and libertarian policies and was hugely popular among younger male voters.
After polling as high as 17 per cent during the summer, it finished with just 6.2 per cent support or 12 seats — far from its hoped-for 30-40 seats.
“We were supposed to flip the table but we failed to do so,” said its leader, Slawomir Mentzen. “This is simply another of our lost battles in our struggle for a free, proud and prosperous Poland.”
With a margin of error of 2 per cent, Sunday night’s exit poll numbers are likely to change a little before Tuesday’s final result, including an expected record participation of Polish voters abroad.
In a further defeat for Mr Kaczynski and PiS, voters rejected a referendum on Sunday. It comprised four controversial questions on whether voters backed a higher pension age, selling off strategic state assets, open borders to Belarus and “admitting thousands of illegal immigrants ... in accordance with the forced relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy”.
Just 40 per cent of voters participated, 10 points short of 50 per cent participation to be valid.
