The European Union is struggling to fulfill its pledges of military support to Ukraine, amid gathering concern about whether a second Donald Trump presidency in the United States would remove Kyiv’s largest source of assistance.
Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius and the EU’s foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell acknowledged that the union may miss its target of sending one million artillery shells and missiles by next March, as the continent’s manufacturing capacity maxes out.
“It is safe to assume that the one million rounds will not be reached,” Mr Pistorius told reporters on arrival to a meeting of defence ministers in Brussels on Tuesday, saying it may never have been “a realistic goal”.
Mr Borrell said 300,000 rounds had already been delivered and 120,000 were due for delivery this year and next, but suggested European governments would have to persuade the arms industry to prioritise orders for Ukraine above those of other countries to meet the goal.
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Estonia’s defence minister Hanno Pevkur said the EU needed to produce an estimated three million rounds per year and that it was falling far behind.
“Today we are producing less than one million, maybe 600,000-700,000 per year, so it is not enough,” he told reporters. “Look at Russia, they are producing today more than ever.”
As the ministers met, Hungary reiterated that it would block the approval of the latest tranche of €500 million due to be added to a fund that reimburses EU member states that supply Ukraine with military equipment.
Hungary has sought guarantees from Ukraine that its OTP Bank and other firms will not be placed on Kyiv’s blacklist of “international sponsors of war” as a condition for removing its veto.
The Ukrainian National Agency on Corruption Prevention temporarily removed the bank from the list in September and talks were held between Hungary and Ukraine on Tuesday over how to resolve the issue.
A proposal to spend up to €20 billion on military aid for Ukraine over four years, intended to create dependable longer-term support for Ukraine regardless of political currents, has also met with resistance.
Frankly speaking, I am too much consumed by my current activities in order to spend my time on speculations
— Josep Borrell, EU foreign affairs chief
A newly-elected populist government in Slovakia has halted its military aid to Ukraine, adding an additional source of scepticism among the 27 EU member states alongside Hungary, which has long had an ambivalent position and has maintained ties with Moscow.
On Tuesday, the Hungarian government announced a step forward in an agreement to develop a nuclear power plant with Russian state energy company Rosatom.
Polling released earlier this month that showed US president Joe Biden was trailing Mr Trump in support in five of the six key battleground states heightened concerns about whether the US can be depended upon and if the EU could be left alone as Ukraine’s main military backer.
Mr Trump has vowed to stop the “endless flow of American treasure to Ukraine” if he is elected and has repeatedly praised Russian president Vladimir Putin, while a cadre of hard-right Republican supporters have obstructed Ukraine aid.
Mr Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, refused to be drawn on whether the EU would be able to fill the gap if the US were to end its support.
“I don’t know what’s going to happen in the US next year,” he said. “Frankly speaking, I am too much consumed by my current activities in order to spend my time on speculations.”
