Russian mercenaries have become increasingly active in Africa since the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, died under suspicious circumstances a year ago in a mid-air plane explosion, new data shows.
According to research conducted by the Armed Conflict Locations and Event Data (Acled), a US-based conflict-monitoring group, Russian troops engaged in more violence in Africa in the nine months to June 2024 than in any other period since they began recording their activities in 2018.
Acled data reveals the last three months of 2023 in Africa were a particularly violent time for the Wagner fighters, who participated in nearly 180 events related to political violence compared with about 90 in the three previous months.
Prigozhin (63) was a long-standing ally of president Vladimir Putin until he led the Wagner Group in a short-lived rebellion against his government in June 2023, after falling out with Russian generals over their use of his troops in their war on Ukraine.
The infighting between Prigozhin and Putin’s generals saw the former man’s troops eventually threaten Russian territory, driving a military convoy into the country towards Moscow. However, Prigozhin backed down after a few days.
The paramilitary leader and several of his senior officers subsequently died on August 23rd, 2023, when the private plane they were travelling in inexplicably blew up in mid-air, and crashed in a field northwest of Moscow.
Acled’s Africa regional specialist, Ladd Serwat, said in its latest report on Russian mercenaries in Africa, that after Prigozhin’s death many people expected Moscow to shut the Wagner Group down and force its fighters to quit or join the Russian military.
However, Putin’s approach in Africa to the group, which has been renamed Africa Corp in some countries on the continent, was different, he said. While there have been changes to its key leaders and country-level management, what is happening on the ground differs from country to country.
“We have seen new contracts for fighters under a new paramilitary structure, in addition to dispersing other contracts to smaller PMCs [private military companies] in the region. Russia seems to want to avoid one organisation amassing too much power and posing a threat, as was the case with the Wagner Group under Prigozhin,” Serwat explained.
According to Acled, much of the Wagner Group’s increased military activity in Africa over the past year is linked to its support of Mali’s military rulers, who are fighting Tuareg separatist rebels in the country’s north.
Acled has also tracked political violence connected to the Wagner Group in seven countries: Libya, Central African Republic, Chad, Mali, Mozambique, Sudan and Mauritania. Since Prigozhin’s death, Russian private military companies had also deployed troops to Burkina Faso and Niger, said Serwat.
Another recent development is the degree to which Russia’s government claims ownership over the country’s mercenary activity in Africa. During Prigozhin’s time in charge of the Wagner Group, Russia denied it was involved with it until shortly before he died.
However, Serwat said the newly branded Africa Corp had become “a much more direct extension of the Russian Ministry of Defense, and Moscow has admitted to financing it. Africa Corps also looks to be more focused on security and military operations”.
In terms of the future of Russia’s private military companies in Africa, Serwat believes they will expand their influence in the nations in which they have gained a foothold.
“I expect that in the coming six months or year, we will see the Wagner Group/Africa Corps training state forces in Niger and Burkina Faso, with the possibility to start engaging in direct violence,” he said.
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