Few nations have more riding on Donald Trump’s return to the White House than Ukraine and, despite his criticism of US military aid for Kyiv and apparent regard for Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin, its people think he could turn out to be an unlikely ally.
While policymakers in Kyiv and many western capitals fear that Trump could force Ukraine to make a ruinous deal with the Kremlin, many of its citizens are following their president Volodymyr’s Zelenskiy’s public lead and hoping for the best.
“Watching the US election, we thought that Kamala [Harris] would be best for us,” says Dima, a soldier originally from Donetsk in now Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine.
“But we saw the reaction of our president [to Trump’s win] and I think he could be good in the war area,” he adds as he strolls through Lviv in western Ukraine during brief leave from the military.
Dima says Ukraine requires “balance” between military power and diplomatic support to enter any negotiations with Russia: “We need military help, and the Americans can do that, and a deal will come anyway. But we need to be in a good position in the war area to be strong [in talks].”
Yet Trump has lambasted US president Joe Biden for sending more than $60 billion (€56 billion) in military aid to Ukraine since Russia’s all-out invasion in February 2022, and has disparagingly called Zelenskiy “the greatest salesman on Earth” because “every time [he] comes to the United States he walks away with $100 billion”.
Trump has also refused to plainly condemn Russia’s invasion of its pro-western neighbour, while calling Putin “savvy” and a “genius” and repeatedly praising his strength – as he has other autocratic rulers including those of China and North Korea.
“Of course we are afraid of this,” says Iryna Mylymuk of Trump’s seeming admiration for Putin.
“But we will see. We hope for great news for Ukraine, for support for Ukraine, but we just don’t know what will happen yet,” she says outside Lviv’s Astoria hotel, where she is the general manager.
“I think it could be possible [to negotiate an end to the war],” she adds. “We hope this will be a positive moment for Ukraine.”
Trump has bragged that he could end the war in a day, while offering just the barest outline of a strategy based on threats: that if Ukraine refused a deal then US aid would end, and if Russia refused then US support for Kyiv would surge.
Some Ukrainians believe Trump’s background as a businessman and dealmaker will help him forge an agreement to end the war that will not only benefit the Kremlin.
“I do some work in cryptocurrency and Trump is good for this kind of work,” says Maks Leonov, a law student drinking coffee in a Lviv cafe after arriving on an overnight train from Kyiv.
“I hope he can be good for my country too. I hope he will try to stop the war, because he looks like a strong man,” he adds.
“We need to work together so that Russia leaves some of our territory. But it will not want to give up those areas that it occupied more than 10 years ago,” says Leonov (21), referring to the Crimean peninsula and parts of eastern Ukraine seized in 2014. “It’s very hard for us because we don’t have the resources [to liberate the whole country]. But I think our partners will keep helping us.”
Zelenskiy and Putin were both quick this week to praise a US mogul who, by reputation, loves flattery, detests criticism and does not forget a perceived slight.
Zelenskiy hailed Trump’s “impressive” election victory and claimed they shared a “peace through strength” approach to diplomacy. In a subsequent “excellent” phone call, Zelenskiy praised Trump’s family and team and said he hoped his second presidency would make the US stronger.
A day later, Putin expressed admiration for Trump’s reaction to being shot at during a rally in Pennsylvania in July: “He turned out to be a courageous person,” he said. “People show who they are in extraordinary circumstances ... And he showed himself, in my opinion, in a very correct manner, courageously. Like a man.”
[ Daniel McLaughin: Ukraine's weariness with the West grows as war enters new phaseOpens in new window ]
Some political analysts say Trump’s ego and thin skin make him a volatile leader who, for Ukraine, Russia and all other states, is an unpredictable interlocutor whose moves may hinge as much on personal feeling as national interest.
“He seems like a charismatic and temperamental man,” says Oleh Lybert (20), a student on his way to lectures at Ivan Franko national university in Lviv.
“He is very unpredictable and we don’t know what will happen for Ukraine under a Trump presidency. But I think Ukrainians have to do their own work and do their best to win this war. Trump can help but he cannot be the main part of our work,” he adds.
“I think only Ukrainians can stop the war – that is the only exit from the situation. We need to make a deal on our terms – that is a win for us. Every war ends with some deal, so we need to win and make our deal.”
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