The national airlines of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have suspended some flights to Russia after evidence suggested an Azerbaijani plane had been shot down by Russian air defence systems.
The Kazakh airline, Qazaq Air, said on Friday it suspended its Astana to Ekaterinburg route, according to the Kazinform news agency, while Azerbaijan Airlines suspended flights to seven cities in the south of Russia.
The measures were taken after an Azerbaijan Airlines flight from Baku to Russia’s regional capital, Grozny, was diverted across the Caspian Sea and crash-landed near Aktau in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, killing 38 of the 67 people on board.
Video of the fuselage of the crashed aircraft has shown multiple puncture marks consistent with fire from an anti-aircraft system. There is also evidence that Russia was jamming the GPS navigation system near Grozny at the time, apparently to defend against an attack by Ukrainian drones.
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Footage of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane shows suspected shrapnel damage to the cabin and tail of the wrecked plane and along the fuselage.
Azerbaijan’s transport minister Rashad Nabiyev said on Friday that evidence gathered by Azerbaijani investigators pointed to “external interference” with the aircraft.
“Injured passengers and surviving flight attendants said that they heard an explosion when they were over Grozny,” Mr Nabiyev said, adding that there was video evidence of a flight attendant and a passenger sustaining injuries to their arms and legs.
One early theory pointed to an explosion on board the plane. But Mr Nabiyev said witness testimony suggested otherwise.
“Injured Russian citizens also reported hearing three explosions over Grozny. According to them, the sounds of the explosions were heard from outside, after which something hit the plane,” the minister told reporters.
He said the Azerbaijani commission at the scene inspected the body of the aircraft, also pointing to an external impact. “Damage to the fuselage and traces of shrapnel were recorded inside the aircraft.”
[ Russia accused of downing Azerbaijan passenger planeOpens in new window ]
Qazaq Air said it was suspending flights to Ekaterinburg until January 27th pending an “ongoing risk assessment” of flights to Russia. Azerbaijan Airlines said it halted flights to Grozny and other southern Russian cities until completion of an investigation into the crash.
Israel’s flag-carrier, El Al, on Thursday also announced it was suspending flights from Tel Aviv to Moscow pending a safety assessment.
Russia had insisted the aircraft was unable to land in Grozny because of heavy fog and that the aircraft had hit a flock of birds. Local authorities in Russia’s nearby North Ossetia region announced an attack by Ukrainian drones, one of which was shot down, killing a woman on the ground. But the Kommersant newspaper reported there was no “heavy fog” forecast for Grozny at the time.
The head of Russia’s Rosaviatsia aviation agency, Dmitry Yadrov, on Thursday said the conditions around Grozny had been “very difficult” amid attacks from Ukrainian combat drones. The Kremlin declined to comment on the cause of the crash.
The incident has invoked comparisons with Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 being shot down over Ukraine in 2014. An investigation concluded that crash, which killed all 298 people on board, was the result of the firing of an air defence missile by Russia-controlled fighters in eastern Ukraine.
A joint investigation is being carried out by Azerbaijani, Kazakh and Russian officials. The aircraft type involved — an Embraer-190 regional jet — was previously regarded as one of the world’s safest civil aircraft.
Senior US and Ukrainian officials have also pointed to a Russian anti-aircraft system. Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian national security and defence council official, posted on Telegram on Thursday that Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny.
“The plane was damaged by the Russians and sent to Kazakhstan, instead of making an emergency landing in Grozny and saving people’s lives,” he wrote.
Rasim Musabekov, a member of Azerbaijan’s parliament, has called for Russia to apologise.
“The plane was shot down in Russian territory, in the skies over Grozny, and this cannot be denied,” Mr Musabekov told the Turan news agency. “This is how civilised relations work. If air defence systems are active, the airport should be closed, and warnings should be issued to prevent flights to the area.”
The plane crash “will clearly trigger a crisis between Baku and Moscow”, said Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center, a Yerevan-based think-tank. He noted that the incident came against the backdrop of Azerbaijan’s war against Armenia, which led to Baku’s takeover of the Nagorno-Karabakh region last year. That annexation undermined the authority of Russian peacekeepers deployed there, marking a turning point in Russia’s waning influence in the South Caucasus. “Azerbaijan’s justified anger and outrage at Russia will be more overconfident and emboldened to push Moscow even harder,” Giragosian added. “The clear loser in the South Caucasus will be Russian power and prestige.”
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